Long-dated Treasuries fall 0.6% as buybacks rise

S. citizen if Republicans keep control of both chambers of Congress in November. There’s just a little problem. S.

Treasury doesn’t have the money to write this check. Trump made the pledge Wednesday night at the Republican midterm convention in Dallas, branding it the Trump Dividend. “Here’s my promise. 23 trillion.

S. 3 million citizens are aged 18 or older, according to its 2024 American Community Survey. 23 trillion. S.

economy produces in a year, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. It is more than what Washington spends on interest on the national debt, about $1 trillion this year, according to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO). It is also more than the $839 billion Pentagon funding bill Congress passed in February. Vice President JD Vance suggested that wealthy Americans would be excluded, though no income limit has been specified.

The Treasury’s Checking Account Comes Up Short The government keeps its cash in a checking account at the Federal Reserve called the Treasury General Account. It held $880 billion at the close of Sept. 8, according to the Daily Treasury Statement. Draining it to zero is not an option, since that money pays Social Security benefits and federal salaries every day.

But even at zero, the promise would be about $400 billion short. The only way to pay is to raise debt. And that requires Congress. 1 trillion.

3 trillion, or roughly 10% of GDP. S. has only run deficits that large during the 2009 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. Then there is the debt ceiling, the legal cap on how much the government can borrow.

08 trillion on Sept. 1 trillion limit. The dividend alone would exceed it. Read Also: QUICK SPARK: 10-Year Treasury Yields Rise to 3-Year Highs Why the Bond Market Is Watching More borrowing means more Treasury bonds for investors to absorb.

That tends to push yields, the interest rate the government pays, higher. The bond market is already under strain. In August, the Treasury said it would at least double its buybacks of older long-term bonds to calm yields. On Thursday, the Treasury announced it would triple the buyback of off-the-run notes and bonds to $6 billion.

87%. 6% in premarket trading. Higher Treasury yields feed directly into mortgage and car loan rates. 7% in July, nearly double the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.

2 trillion cash injection could add to that pressure. The Odds Say the Check May Never Be Written The payout only happens if Republicans hold both chambers. Prediction markets see that as the least likely outcome. 5%, down 1 point this week.

5%, down 5 points over the past month. 5%, up 2 points this week. With less than two months to Election Day, Trump is betting a $5,000 check can change that political math. Read Also: Oil Hits $100 a Barrel: Will Trump ‘TACO’ Again?

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