Bitcoin drops after jobs report revives Fed hike odds
Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen said the Fed “really should” raise rates at its Sept. 16 decision after a blowout jobs report pushed hike odds back to 60%. Bitcoin fell below $80,000, reversing Thursday’s gains.
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Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen argued Friday that the Fed “really should” raise rates at its Sept.
16 decision after a blowout jobs report pushed rate hike odds back to 60%.
What Cowen Said About the Jobs Report Cowen argued on YouTube that the August jobs print essentially reversed what Fed Governor Waller said Thursday, after Waller’s comments had briefly made a hold seem more likely.
With only two weeks left before the Sept.
16 decision, Cowen noted that a 60/40 split is unusually uncertain, since market expectations typically settle at 80% to 90% certainty within one to two weeks of a Fed decision.
His case for a hike rests on four factors hitting at once: GDP tracking at 4.7% for Q3 according to the Atlanta Fed Inflation still running at 3.3% to 3.4% year-over-year Labor market showing resilience rather than weakness Oil near $90 a barrel adding fresh inflationary pressure In that environment, Cowen said the Fed really should raise rates, and if it does not, the bond market will likely read it as a mistake and push long-end yields even higher.
Why the Inflation Report Next Week Is the Real Swing Factor Cowen argued that the September inflation report, due before the Fed meeting, is the single data point that will settle the debate.
A hot print alongside the strong jobs data makes a rate hike almost unavoidable in his view.
A cooler print gives the Fed cover to hold and potentially hike later in the year.
He also flagged that the Bank of Japan is very likely to raise rates in September, with the Japanese 2-year yield already at 1.74% against a policy rate of 1%, pointing toward at least one more hike before year end.
Where Bitcoin Stands After the Selloff As reported earlier Friday, Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) dropped below $80,000 immediately after the jobs report, giving back most of Thursday’s 5% breakout gains.
The Parabolic SAR flipped bearish at $77,800, with $76,000 as the channel base that must hold to keep the broader uptrend intact.
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