U.S. job openings rise as July payrolls fall

The U.S. labor market remains split between tight vacancies and softer hiring. The ratio of job openings to unemployed Americans rose to 1.05 in July, the highest since January 2025, even as July nonfarm payrolls fell by 23,000. The July openings reading reflected an increase of 89,000 to 7.271 million, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey released Sept.

1. Matt Luzzetti, chief economist at Deutsche Bank, said the ratio of job openings relative to unemployed individuals continues to rise and is at its highest level since January 2025. He said the labor market is not a reason to not raise rates at this point in time. Workers told a different story.

Hires fell by 278,000 to 5.054 million, taking the hiring rate down to 3.2% from 3.4%. The quits rate held at 1.9%, which was described as a sign that workers see few better options elsewhere. Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, said the labor market is back in the “low fire, low hire” mode. She added that companies are growing cautious as the war in Iran drags on and borrowing costs have spiked.

The aggregates still masked sharp sector gaps. Manufacturing vacancies rose by 79,000, almost all in durable goods, to their highest level since December 2023. By contrast, hiring in professional and business services fell by 188,000. Sneha Puri, an economist at the Indeed Hiring Lab, said the “dualit"y of the labor market is definitely quite striking.” The source then shifts into commentary about “ghost jobs” and does not add further market-moving facts.

BLS research found potential overcounts in 0.27% of reports, and excluding or including them left the overall openings rate unchanged. A separate comparison showed vacancy trends at single-location and multi-location businesses moving together, challenging the idea that duplicate remote postings are inflating the total. The issue is a falling survey response rate, which has slipped to just above 30% from around 58% at the start of the decade. That decline is adding volatility and larger revisions.

Today’s August employment report now serves as the referee between JOLTS resilience and July’s contraction, with Reuters-polled economists expecting a rebound. The risk to the currently prevailing September rate hike is a second weak payroll print alongside elevated vacancies, a stagflationary combination that would make every Fed path look wrong.