Torsten Slok: Iran war, tariffs may lift US Treasury yields
Apollo’s Torsten Slok said the Iran war and tariffs could lift US Treasury yields, adding the pressure is largely unrelated to US fiscal fundamentals. He cited rising long-duration borrowing costs and spillovers to housing and autos.
Torsten Slok, chief economist at Apollo Global Management, said the Iran war and tariffs could lift US Treasury yields and that the pressure is largely unrelated to US fiscal fundamentals.
He added markets appear less worried about US policymakers than about Japan and Germany.
Global government borrowing costs are rising as investors demand greater compensation for longer-duration debt.
Despite Treasury buybacks announced by BESSENT to curb long-end yields, US yields have resumed higher.
Market pricing puts the probability of a Fed rate hike at the mid-September meeting at 69%.
Slok said rising yields are already transmitting to housing and autos—both highly rate-sensitive—while they do not constrain AI investment.