Schiff sees 8% Treasury yield, says mortgages could top 10%

Veteran investor Peter Schiff said Monday that the bond market has entered a structural bear market that will push Treasury yields far beyond their highest levels since 2007, arguing the surge is just beginning given how much larger the national debt has grown since prior yield peaks.

Not the Same Bond Market as 2007 The 10-year Treasury yield touched 4.78% Monday, its highest since 2007. “However, in 2007, Treasuries were still in a bull market, with yields headed lower.

Now they’re in a bear market, with yields headed much higher,” Schiff said in a post on X.

The 10-year Treasury yield is 4.75%, the highest since Jan.

2025.

When the yield rises above 4.77%, it will be the highest since 2007.

However, in 2007 Treasuries were still in a bull market, with yields headed lower.

Now they're in a bear market, with yields headed much higher. — Peter Schiff (@PeterSchiff) August 31, 2026 Read Also: Hakeem Jeffries Raises ‘Serious Concerns’ Over Russia Sanctions Bill, Warns Trump Could ‘Abuse’ New Tariff and Sanctions Authority Sees Room to Run Higher Schiff added that once the 2006 high of 5.15% is broken, the next targets are the 1999 peak of 6.44% and the 1994 high of 8.03%.

He added that the national debt was “well under $5 trillion” in 1994, compared with more than $40 trillion today.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury is now 4.78%, the highest since 2007.

The high from 2006 was 5.15%.

Once that's taken out, the next target is the 1999 high of 6.44%, then the 1994 high of 8.03%.

In 1994 the national debt was well under $5 trillion.

Now it's over $40 trillion! — Peter Schiff (@PeterSchiff) September 1, 2026 Charlie Bilello, chief market strategist at Creative Planning, said the national debt has grown by $715 billion since July 1, even as the Treasury doubled its buyback of long-dated bonds to $4 billion per operation.

He called it an approach that “doesn’t solve the underlying problem” of continued heavy borrowing.

US National Debt has increased by $715 billion since July 1 while the 10-Year Treasury yield has jumped from 4.48% to 4.75%.

Washington’s solution? Increase buybacks of longer-dated Treasuries to $4 billion.

But swapping longer-maturity debt for shorter-maturity debt doesn’t… pic.twitter.com/tO0zUS0LxF — Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) September 1, 2026 T he Fed’s Only Real Lever Is More Inflation According to Schiff, the only way to slow the rise in long-term yields would be for the Federal Reserve to ramp up quantitative easing, but argued that this path would trade one problem for another. “That just means more inflation and even higher bond yields later, but that’s the choice politicians always make,” he said. “That’s why we choose gold.” The only way to slow the rise in long-term Treasury yields is for the Fed to ramp up QE.

That just means more inflation and even higher bond yields later, but that’s the choice politicians always make.

That’s why we choose gold. — Peter Schiff (@PeterSchiff) August 31, 2026 Warsh’s Hawkish Turn Is Already Hitting Wallets The 30-year Treasury yield climbed to a 19-year high this month as investors continued to weigh inflation concerns, pushing longer-term borrowing costs higher across the board.

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh ‘s hawkish Jackson Hole speech on Friday pushed the odds of a September rate hike as high as 66.4%, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

Responding to a user who asked what an 8% 10-year yield would mean for mortgages, Schiff said it would send mortgage rates above 10%.

An 8% 10-year Treasury would send mortgates rate over 10%. — Peter Schiff (@PeterSchiff) September 1, 2026 Read Also: Meta Pulls Dozens of Facebook, Instagram Ads After India Finds Porn-Bait Scam Designed to Steal Bank Credentials Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published editors.

Image via Shutterstock/ William Potter