California’s counting on an IPO tax windfall. Several factors are complicating the equation

The IPOs of SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic could create a tax windfall for the state of California. The burst of tech wealth has drawn comparison to the 2012 IPO of Menlo Park-based Facebook, which generated $1.3 billion in taxes for the Golden State. But the revenue impact may be blunted, due to how these employees' stock compensation was structured and because tech employees today have more tools at their disposal to mitigate their tax burden. The blockbuster SpaceX IPO and potential upcoming public offerings for OpenAI and Anthropic could create a tax windfall for the state of California. Yet the revenue boost may fall short of previous tech IPOs – at least relative to the firms' valuations – given the specific nature and tax treatment of today's tech compensation. Following its IPO last week, SpaceX is now valued at $2.5 trillion, minting many of its employees who live and work near...