European gas steadies above €65/MWh as LNG supply risks persist

European natural gas prices fluctuated above €65/MWh, their highest level since January 2023, amid concerns over global LNG supply after the Middle East conflict disrupted around one-fifth of global LNG flows and hindered Europe’s summer stockpiling.

EU gas storage levels are currently around 63% full, the lowest seasonal level since 2009, well below historical averages.

While the European Commission remains confident that substantial spare LNG import capacity and a storage target of 80% will be sufficient to meet winter demand, Europe is expected to face intense competition from Asia for available cargoes.

Meanwhile, signs of improving flows through the Strait of Hormuz and discussions surrounding an Iran—Oman shipping arrangement have eased some concerns over immediate supply disruptions.

Market attention is increasingly shifting toward the economic and sanctions-related consequences of the Iran situation rather than an imminent physical supply shock.