Ryan Detrick says September odds may favor 2026 stocks
Carson Group strategist Ryan Detrick said September’s weak reputation may be offset in 2026 by strong year-to-date gains and positive August seasonality.
While September carries a longstanding reputation as the “worst month of the year” for the S&P 500, Carson Group Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick argued that the market’s strong year-to-date trajectory suggests 2026 could defy those historical odds.
Historical Odds Favor the Bulls Seasonal anxiety often peaks as September begins, but Detrick highlights that historical trends tell a far more optimistic story when equities enter the month on solid footing.
Taking to X, Detrick acknowledged the seasonal reputation of September while pointing out key historical exceptions during strong market years. “Yes, September is historically the worst month of the year.
Get ready to hear that a lot next week,” Detrick posted. “But things do pretty well when August is green and the year is off to a solid start (up between 10% and 17.5%).” Historical data stretching back to World War II reveals that when the S&P 500 achieves a positive August alongside year-to-date gains between 10% and 17.5%, a scenario matching 2026’s 3% August gain so far and 12.8% YTD return, September itself averages a 1.0% gain.
More importantly, the final four months of the year have closed higher 10 out of 11 times, generating an average return of 5.6%.
Yes, September is historically the worst month of the year.
Get ready to hear that a lot next week.
But things do pretty well when August is green and the year is off to a solid start (up between 10% and 17.5%).
In fact, the rest of year (final four months) lower only once and… pic.twitter.com/VO6XkYVbcg — Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) August 27, 2026 Read Also: S&P 500 Faces ‘Worst Two Months’ of the Year: Wall Street Strategist Warns Investors to Brace for August and September Volatility Key Technical Levels and Seasonality Speaking on an episode of the Facts Versus Feelings podcast, Detrick noted that seasonal turbulence remains possible, particularly given broader political and election-year dynamics. “August and September historically in a midterm year can be trouble, can be volatile,” Detrick admitted.
However, Detrick maintains that strong internal market breadth and technical support levels bode well for investors.
He specifically highlighted 7,610, the S&P 500’s June 2 peak, as a vital floor. “Previous peaks or previous resistance should be new support,” Detrick noted, adding that as long as the index stays above 7,610, the broader technical structure remains net optimistic.
With history and market internals on the side of the bulls, Detrick urges investors not to panic over calendar-based fears.
How Has the Market Performed in 2026? The S&P 500 index has advanced 12.72% YTD.
Similarly, the Nasdaq Composite index was up 14.23%, and the Dow Jones gained 10.72% YTD.
On Thursday, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE: SPY ) and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ: QQQ ), which track the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100, respectively, closed higher.
The SPY was up 0.66% to $771.10, while the QQQ advanced by 1.37% to $721.11.
Meanwhile, the Dow tracker, State Street SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (NYSE: DIA ), ended 0.19% higher at $535.22.
In premarket trading on Friday, SPY was up 0.02%, QQQ declined 0.17%, and DIA was 0.05% higher.
Read Also: $40 Trillion US Debt Is 72 Times Mount Everest in Cash: Market Strategist Says the Number Looks ‘Scary’ Until You See How Much Americans Own Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published editors.
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