Pappas leads NH Dem Senate primary, campaign cites 71%

Pappas is currently earning 71% of Democratic primary votes, his campaign said.

Rep.

Chris Pappas, D-N.H., has a commanding lead in his bid for the Democratic nomination in New Hampshire’s Senate race, according to numbers from his campaign, shared first with Semafor.

That will likely settle some nerves among national Democrats rattled by this year’s primary polling — particularly after a University of New Hampshire poll placed Democrat Karishma Manzur just 13 points behind Pappas in the Sept.

8 primary.

Pappas is currently earning 71% of Democratic primary votes compared to 15% for Manzur, with 14% undecided, according to the internal survey of 422 Democratic primary voters conducted by GQR from Aug.

19-25.

Democrats aren’t sweating Pappas’ primary standing, but they anticipate a tight general election.

The UNH poll showed former Republican Sen.

Chris Sununu with a narrow lead over Pappas in the race, and polls with similarly tight results are circulating among Republicans.

Another poll released in July and shared with Semafor shows Pappas with a one-point lead.

And Semafor is told another private poll conducted in August also forecast a tied race.

Pappas has been bracing for this — he told Semafor in June New Hampshire is still “very much a purple state” despite Democrats’ recent successes, and anticipates the race will “stay in the margin of error from here to November.” The UNH poll could be an outlier: Pappas is leading in the primary by 20 points or more in other public polls.

Pappas also has support from across the Democratic Party — including from progressive stalwart Sen.

Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass. — while Manzur’s highest-profile national endorsement is from former New York Rep.

Jamaal Bowman.

Sen.

Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., hasn’t endorsed, an aide said, and it’s not clear if he will.

And Sununu still has to beat former Sen.

Scott Brown in his own primary, although the latest UNH poll showed Sununu with a big lead.