US sugar futures surge back toward May 2025 highs

US sugar futures surged beyond 18 cents per pound, moving back toward the highest since May 2025, as traders balanced the supply and demand outlook.

Analysts have been revising their forecasts for a global sugar deficit in 2026/27, with the shortfall potentially widening further in 2027/28 as lower cane and beet plantings weigh on production.

Climate risks in major producing regions and a potential shift toward ethanol production are adding to supply concerns, particularly in Brazil.

Weather remains critical to the global outlook, with the prospect of one of the strongest El Niño events in decades threatening production in key growing regions.

On the demand side, uncertainty over Indian purchases remains a key factor, while oil prices are being closely watched for their potential impact on ethanol production.

India is seeking overseas sugar supplies to ease record domestic prices.

However, imports are expected to remain below the amount authorized.