Nvidia reports second-quarter earnings after the bell today

NVIDIA Corp. (NASDAQ: NVDA ) reports second-quarter earnings after the bell today, with the call at 5 p.m.

ET.

Polymarket gives the chipmaker a 97% chance of beating earnings, but the more interesting action is on Kalshi, where traders are betting on which words CEO Jensen Huang and his team will say.

Analysts expect earnings of about $2.09 per share on revenue near $92 billion, roughly double the year-ago quarter.

The stock is up about 12% this year but has fallen the day after each of its last four reports, according to Bespoke.

What Kalshi Predicts Nvidia Will Say "Hyperscaler" leads the board at 99%.

Nvidia said last quarter it would create a new reporting category for public clouds and major consumer internet companies.

Fund manager Dan Niles notes that their capital spending surged 92% year over year. "Cosmos," the platform Nvidia built to train robots and self-driving systems on simulated worlds, trades at 74%.

Other physical-AI terms are also favored to make the call: "Self Driving" trades at 64% and "Humanoid" at 62%. "Omniverse," Nvidia’s platform for creating and simulating digital replicas of factories and other physical environments, trades at 58%. “Gaming” is at 63%.

Nvidia no longer reports the business it was built on separately; gaming now sits inside Edge Computing, which generated less than 8% of total revenue last quarter.

What Kalshi Predicts Nvidia Will Skip "TSMC" trades at 41%, compared with 18% for "Taiwan." As Rubin begins shipping this autumn, traders see Huang as more likely to name manufacturer Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (NYSE: TSM ) than discuss the geopolitical risk surrounding where Nvidia’s chips are made. “Tariff” trades at 18% and “Trump” at just 8%.

A year of export licenses and revenue-sharing deals kept Nvidia in Washington’s orbit, yet traders overwhelmingly expect the president to go unnamed. “H20” sits at 11%.

Nvidia’s own outlook assumes zero China data center compute revenue, and Siebert CIO Mark Malek calls a China comeback one of the few fresh catalysts left, yet traders bet the chip built for that market never comes up. “GM” brings up the rear at 4%.

The partnership General Motors Co. (NYSE: GM ) struck with Nvidia at last year’s GTC conference is strongly favored to go unmentioned.

Reading the Board A standard beat may not be enough.

Wall Street expects Nvidia to guide for roughly $104 billion in third-quarter revenue, but Jefferies models $108 billion and UBS says it could exceed $110 billion.

That creates a much higher unofficial hurdle.

With Morgan Stanley estimating Rubin could contribute nearly $9 billion during the quarter, guidance near $104 billion could be treated as a disappointment even if it meets consensus.

Malek argues Nvidia could deliver “the greatest quarter in the history of the semiconductor industry” and still get nothing for it without a new story.

Nvidia options implied a 5.6% post-earnings move in either direction, equivalent to roughly $286 billion in market value, according to Pro.

Whether Nvidia’s guidance clears the whisper number is the $286 billion question.

Image: Shutterstock Kalshi and have an existing data collaboration agreement.

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