Nvidia Q2 fiscal 2027 results due Wednesday, guidance in focus

Nvidia Corp 's (NASDAQ: NVDA ) Q2 fiscal 2027 results, due Wednesday, are this week's marquee market event.

While the company has beaten Wall Street revenue and earnings forecasts for eight consecutive quarters, the stock has dropped the next day in each of the last four—creating the central puzzle traders are trying to price.

According to Pro, the options market is pricing a 4.99% move in Nvidia shares the day after earnings.

That figure is the implied move — the size of the one-day swing, up or down, that traders are currently paying to bet on or protect against.

On a market capitalization of roughly $5.2 trillion, 4.99% works out to about $257 billion of value created or erased in a single session.

The First Bar Is The Easy One Analysts expect Q2 earnings of $2.09 per share on $92.27 billion in revenue—roughly double last year's $1.05 and $46.74 billion.

That revenue consensus sits 1.4% above Nvidia's $91 billion guidance (±2%), signaling Wall Street expects mild conservatism.

History favors a beat: Nvidia has topped EPS estimates by an average of 5.9% and revenue by 3.4% over the last eight quarters.

However, the average one-day stock reaction across those reports is -2.8%—a reminder that beating expectations isn't the same as surprising the market.

Date EPS Est.

EPS Act.

Surprise Rev.

Est.

Rev.

Act.

Surprise Next-Day Move May 20, 2026 $1.76 $1.87 +6.3% $78.42B $81.62B +4.1% -1.8% Feb 25, 2026 $1.54 $1.62 +5.2% $66.13B $68.13B +3.0% -5.5% Nov 19, 2025 $1.26 $1.30 +3.2% $54.96B $57.01B +3.7% -3.2% Aug 27, 2025 $1.01 $1.05 +4.0% $46.05B $46.74B +1.5% -0.8% May 28, 2025 $0.74 $0.81 +9.9% $43.33B $44.06B +1.7% +3.2% Feb 26, 2025 $0.85 $0.89 +5.0% $38.10B $39.33B +3.2% -8.5% Nov 20, 2024 $0.75 $0.81 +8.0% $33.17B $35.10B +5.8% +0.5% Aug 28, 2024 $0.65 $0.68 +5.4% $28.78B $30.04B +4.4% -6.4% Guidance Is Where The Stock Actually Moves The key number to watch is the October-quarter forecast, where consensus sits at $103 billion to $104 billion.

Crossing the $100 billion quarterly mark would signal accelerating growth rather than a slowdown—a rare feat at Nvidia's scale.

Management has primed investors to expect it.

In May, Nvidia revealed $119 billion in supplier commitments and reiterated confidence in $1 trillion in combined revenue from its Blackwell and Vera Rubin AI platforms through calendar 2027.

Guidance starting below $100 billion would break that momentum.

The Memory Bill The second critical figure is gross margin.

Nvidia guided to roughly 75% (±0.5%) on an adjusted basis—a level it has maintained for a year, but one that is becoming harder to defend.

High-bandwidth memory (HBM) has emerged as the most expensive bottleneck in the AI supply chain, with TrendForce reporting server memory contract prices jumped 53%—58% in Q2 and projecting another 13%—18% rise in Q3.

To offset this, Nvidia is raising prices.

Wednesday's margin outlook will show whether that strategy succeeds: holding at 75% confirms pricing power, while a slip indicates unabsorbed cost pressure.

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang treats the call as an industry read-out as much as a company update, and his framing has moved the stock before.

Three things to listen for: Memory availability heading into 2027 The pace of the Vera Rubin production ramp and Whether anything has changed on China, which Nvidia currently assumes contributes zero data center compute revenue.

Wall Street Positioning Ahead of Nvidia Earnings According to Analyst Ratings, Nvidia carries a consensus Buy rating and an average price target of $315.59 from 32 analysts, implying roughly 49% upside from Tuesday's level.

Targets run from $220 at Argus Research to $500 at Baird.

Date Firm Price Target Action Rating Aug 25, 2026 Raymond James $330 → $352 Maintains Strong Buy Aug 24, 2026 Rosenblatt $325 → $325 Maintains Buy Aug 24, 2026 Keybanc $330 → $330 Reiterates Overweight Aug 24, 2026 Cantor Fitzgerald $350 → $350 Reiterates Overweight Aug 21, 2026 BMO Capital → $340 Initiates Outperform Aug 20, 2026 RBC Capital $300 → $300 Reiterates Outperform Data Analyst Ratings.

Price Action: Nvidia earnings will post after the close on Aug.

26.

The stock is currently up 2.23% and trading at around $213.12 per share.

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