Bitcoin trades around $79,000 as bulls debate cycle bottom

Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) trades around $79,000 on Tuesday as discussions continue on whether the sudden 20% surge was mainly driven by short liquidations or mark a durable cycle bottom.

Did Three Factors Create “Dry Kindle” for BTC? In a panel interview with Scott Melker on Monday, Galaxy Digital head of research Alex Thorn highlighted a combination of improving fund flows, deeply oversold conditions and forced liquidations that helped propel Bitcoin toward $80,000.

Bitcoin spot ETFs attracted roughly $1.9 billion in weekly net inflows, their strongest showing since October 2025, according to Thorn.

Combined with flows into other crypto products, more than $2.6 billion returned to the asset class.

The rally also caught heavily positioned bears off guard, triggering more than $2 billion in short liquidations.

Thorn said the positioning was particularly striking because traders had accumulated large, short exposure near BTC’s 52-week lows while volatility was historically depressed.

That combination created “dry kindling” for a sharp move once a catalyst emerged.

Treasury Purchases—The Main Catalyst The spark may have come from the Treasury’s plans to expand purchases of longer-dated government debt.

While the program isn’t technically quantitative easing or formal yield-curve control, panelists argued that the signal matters more than the label.

Bitcoin’s reaction was notable as it substantially outperformed gold following the announcement reviving its “digital gold” narratives.

The rally also brought institutional demand back into focus.

Thorn argued investors already heavily exposed to AI and mega-cap technology stocks could increasingly look toward Bitcoin for an asset with greater potential upside.

Is $58,000 the Bitcoin Bottom? Thorn said several characteristics of the recent market resemble previous Bitcoin bear-market bottoms. “I don’t think we’re going to retest $58,000 and actually make a lower bottom personally,” Thorn said.

However, he isn’t ready to declare a new bull market.

Bitcoin is trading between the 200-week MA support and 50-week MA resistance, with roughly $82,000 emerging as the key breakout level.

Thorn noted that in roughly 11 of 13 instances when Bitcoin reclaimed the 50-week MA from below during bear-market conditions, the cycle bottom had already been established.

While he sees rejection could send BTC back into the $60,000s, a sustained move above $82,000 would strengthen the case for a structural trend reversal and a $58,000 cycle bottom.

Bloomberg’s Mike McGlone remains bearish, viewing Bitcoin near $78,000 as a selling opportunity due to its high correlation with risk assets and vulnerability to rising stock-market volatility.

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