Arabica coffee futures near July 9 peak on tight stocks
ICE Arabica coffee futures trade around $3.4 per pound near the highest level since July 9 as ICE-certified stocks keep falling toward a 26-year low.
Arabica coffee futures traded around $3.4 per pound, close to their highest since July 9, supported by tight inventories and persistent supply concerns.
ICE-certified Arabica stocks continued to decline and are now near a 26-year low, leaving the market vulnerable to potential supply shocks.
Brazil is heading for a record harvest of around 75 million bags, although harvesting has progressed more slowly than a year ago.
Drier conditions are now allowing producers to accelerate fieldwork.
However, the quality of part of the new Arabica crop remains a concern, with reports pointing to weaker cup quality and smaller bean sizes, which could limit the pace at which inventories are replenished.
Meanwhile, El Niño remains an upside risk, particularly for Brazil’s 2027/28 crop, as changes in rainfall and temperatures could affect flowering and crop development.
Colombia output is seen falling to 12.5 million bags in 2026, from 13.7 million in 2025, hampered by the emerging El Niño pattern.