Nvidia earnings preview flags high bar for beat-and-raise
Nvidia Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) is set to report quarterly results Wednesday after market close, with analysts expecting strong results and guidance, while a strategist says a simple beat may not be enough.
Quarterly financial results from Nvidia Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA ) on Wednesday after market close are among the most anticipated events of the week.
Analysts and investors are expecting the company to once again report strong results that beat estimates and to provide guidance ahead of estimates.
Here’s why that might not be enough to move the stock back to all-time highs.
Nvidia Earnings Strength Freedom Capital Markets Chief Market Strategist Jay Woods calls Nvidia the "poster child for all that is AI" and previews the earnings ahead of Wednesday’s key event. "They have beaten EPS 18 of their last 20 reports and revenues have exceeded expectations 19 of the last 20, so the bar is high," Woods said in a weekly newsletter. "A simple beat may not be enough." Woods said investors are hoping for another beat-and-raise quarter, but that might not be the most important metric to move the stock.
The market expert says investors will be looking for "confirmation that the massive AI infrastructure spending cycle remains alive and well." The focus on AI infrastructure spending is reflected in Nvidia’s data center revenue, up 92% year-over-year in the first quarter, to $75.2 billion.
With heavy spending on AI infrastructure by the likes of Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, and Meta, Woods said investors should pay attention to Nvidia’s data center segment, as it is the "ultimate report card" for AI infrastructure spending.
Likewise, if the segment disappoints, it could paint weakness for the entire AI infrastructure segment. "Any sign that hyperscalers are tapping the brakes could quickly become the biggest story of the quarter." After focusing on Blackwell demand in recent quarters, Woods says investors and analysts will be looking ahead to the Vera Rubin platform to make sure this next chip is on schedule and that demand remains high.
Woods calls China the "major wildcard" for the company with current guidance not pricing in any data center compute revenue from the region.
This comes as China/Hong Kong once made up around 19% of Nvidia’s annual revenue.
With a potential reopening of the region and easing of restrictions, Nvidia could see billions in revenue restored that aren’t part of current guidance.
Read Also: EXCLUSIVE: Market Expert Jay Woods Picks Top 2 Magnificent Seven Stocks For Rest of 2026, 2027 Nvidia Stock Technicals Nvidia stock has fallen after five of its last six earnings reports, according to Woods, with the last +/- 10% earnings move coming in February 2024. "Earnings haven’t been a strong catalyst over the last several quarters," Woods said.
Woods said Nvidia stock trades near the mid-point of its recent range ($195 to $230) and above its 50-week moving average, leaving a limited edge for traders. "Expect the stock to challenge its old highs between $230/$235 on any positive reaction." Woods said it depends on whether there is enough momentum in the earnings report and guidance to send shares higher.
On the flip side, negative sentiment could see the $195 support level in play. "As we head into the results, we are at a crossroads, and that’s what makes this quarter so important." Nvidia Stock Price Action Nvidia stock is down 2.6% to $209.17 on Monday versus a 52-week trading range of $164.07 to $236.54.
Nvidia stock is up 10.8% year-to-date in 2026.
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