Rice futures trade near January 2025 highs on supply worries

Rice futures traded around $14.8 per hundredweight, their highest since January 2025, amd ongoing worries about next season’s supply outlook.

Global supplies remain relatively comfortable for now, but weather risks are increasingly clouding the outlook for the 2026/27 crop, particularly across major Asian producers.

Rainfall has been uneven across the region, with heavy monsoon rains in some areas contrasting with persistent dryness in key rice-growing regions.

India, the world’s top rice exporter, is heading for its weakest monsoon in nearly two decades, with rainfall expected to finish around 15% below the long-term average, which would mark the lowest level since 2009.

While moisture remains adequate in many Indian states, a strengthening El Niño could bring hotter and drier conditions and threaten future harvests.

Meanwhile, stronger purchases by African buyers are adding to demand and providing further support to prices.