Polymarket faces fresh insider trading scrutiny over military markets

Editor's note: The story has been updated to include a response from the Pentagon.

Prediction platform Polymarket is facing renewed scrutiny over suspected insider trading after research flagged more than 150 wallets that allegedly profited from bets tied to confidential U.S. military information.

The nonprofit Anti-Corruption Data Collective (ACDC) suggested on Thursday that insider trading on military information may be happening on the prediction market.

ACDC's study identified "long-shot" bets, defined as wagers of at least $2,500 placed within an hour on an outcome with odds of 35% or less.

ACDC identified 556 wallets, known as "Orcas," that showed a pattern of opening an account, placing a successful long-shot bet, and then often cashing out and disappearing.

Among these, 152 wallets, which made collective earnings of $8 million with a win rate of 97.2%, were particularly successful in military and defense markets.

ACDC co-founder David Szakonyi cautioned that unusual betting activity on Polymarket is highly observable and often copied by big traders and bots. "It would be naive to think foreign-intelligence agencies aren't monitoring these markets," he said.

Pentagon Spokesperson Joshua L.

Wick told, "As a matter of practice, we do not comment on intelligence—related matters, and it would be inappropriate to comment on the methodology or findings of research not conducted by the Department of War." Polymarket did not immediately respond to 's request for comments.

Read Also: JPMorgan Debanked Polymarket Over Regulatory Concerns, But Eyes Role in Potential IPO: Report Prediction Markets Under Regulatory Fire Earlier this month, a Haaretz investigation highlighted that a Polymarket trader known as 25xp allegedly made $200,000 by correctly predicting the U.S.-Iran ceasefire and placed about $40,000 on Benjamin Netanyahu remaining prime minister after Israel's Oct.

27 election.

The report suggested the bets may be intended to influence market odds rather than simply profit from them.

The account previously made only the ceasefire bet, while another account, OnlyBibi2026, has also made substantial pro-Netanyahu wagers.

Meanwhile, last month, a Stanford University and Singapore Management University study raised concerns about alleged manipulation of Polymarket's five-minute Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) binary contracts.

Researchers found that traders may buy Bitcoin on Binance during the final seconds of a contract to push the settlement price above the opening price, increasing their chances of receiving the $1 payout.

Furthermore, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) reportedly launched an investigation into the "mention markets" on prediction market platforms, leading Kalshi to suspend all mention markets in its sports betting segments.

The scrutiny of prediction markets follows a White House disclosure last month that a teleprompter operator allegedly bet on President Donald Trump 's speeches and lost his job, raising concerns about insider trading and market manipulation.

Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published editors.

Read Also: BTC Cracks $68,000 and You May Want to Look at Kalshi to Predict Bitcoin's Next Move Before Binance Does Image via Shutterstock