Cocoa futures hold near 1-month high on crop outlook concerns
Cocoa futures trade above $5,900 per tonne, near the highest since early July, as a subdued US dollar and concerns over the upcoming West African crop support prices.
Cocoa futures traded above $5,900 per tonne, holding close to the highest since early July, amid a subdued US dolar and ongoing concerns over the upcoming West African crop.
Although the 2025/26 season has seen a substantial recovery in supply amid improved weather, traders are becoming more cautious about the 2026/27 outlook as weather risks increase.
A potentially strong El Niño could delay rainfall and extend dry conditions in major producers in West Africa, while hotter and wetter conditions in Ecuador could increase disease risks.
Hedgepoint Global Markets now projects the global cocoa surplus to narrow 66% to 111,000 tons in 2026/27, from 325,000 tons this season.
Production forecasts for Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana have also been lowered, with Ghana expecting output to fall 13% to 650,000 tons next season, while Côte d’Ivoire’s crop is seen declining by more than 10%.