Walmart reports second-quarter earnings before the bell Thursday

Walmart Inc. (NASDAQ: WMT ) reports second-quarter earnings before the bell Thursday, with the call at 8 a.m.

ET.

On Kalshi, traders are betting on which words CEO John Furner will say on just his third quarterly earnings call since replacing Doug McMillon in February.

Analysts expect earnings of about 74 cents per share, up from 68 cents a year ago, on revenue of roughly $186.8 billion.

Consensus sees U.S. comparable sales growth slipping below 4% for the first time since early 2024, The stock is up less than 3% this year after tumbling more than 7% on its May report.

What Kalshi Predicts Walmart Will Say “Marketplace” leads the board at 98%.

Third-party sellers, advertising and memberships are increasingly improving Walmart’s profit mix, while global e-commerce grew 26% last quarter. “Tariff” trades at 94%.

Walmart’s May guidance excluded any benefit from tariff refunds, so a profit beat may need a look under the hood. “Gas” sits at 93%.

Fuel was a major theme last quarter, when higher costs shaved about $175 million off operating income and management flagged pressure on consumers at the pump. “Omnichannel,” Walmart’s favored description of its retail model, trades at 92%. “Rollback” is at 90%.

Furner said in May Walmart was extending its price rollbacks, and the retailer has since cut prices on roughly 7,000 items as living costs squeeze customers. “Automation” also trades at 90%.

Walmart has said roughly half of its U.S. e-commerce fulfillment-center volume is automated. “Sparky” sits at 89%.

Furner said weekly active users of the AI shopping agent more than doubled last quarter, and it now reorders repeat purchases automatically.

What Kalshi Predicts Walmart Will Skip “Prescription” trades at 44%, even though executives said pharmacy pricing legislation knocked a full percentage point off U.S. comps last quarter. “Competition” sits at 42%.

Walmart typically frames its performance in terms of market-share gains rather than discussing rivals directly. “Drone” is at 39%.

Walmart passed one million drone deliveries in May and plans to add the service at another 150 stores with Alphabet’s Wing, but the program may still be too small for the script. “Upper Income” sits at just 20%, despite Walmart saying last quarter that its market-share gains were led by “upper-income households.” “SNAP / Food Stamp” brings up the rear at 10%.

Reading the Board Kalshi also runs a market on Walmart’s full-year U.S. comparable sales growth.

Traders put the odds of comps finishing above 4% near 85%, suggesting they expect any second-quarter slowdown to prove temporary.

Guidance may matter more than the print.

Bank of America’s full-year estimate of $2.90 sits above Walmart’s own $2.75 to $2.85 range.

Options traders are pricing in a 4.56% move, according to Pro.

Kalshi and have an existing data collaboration agreement.

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