U.S. consumer and Fed minutes anchor busy August 17-21 week

Markets head into the week of August 17—21 after the S&P 500 posted its third consecutive weekly gain, with the broader backdrop still supported by a strong Q2 earnings season but complicated by elevated Treasury yields, oil prices and Middle East tensions.

The biggest theme this week should be the U.S. consumer, with a heavy slate of retail earnings: Home Depot (HD) reports Tuesday; Target (TGT), Lowe's (LOW) and Analog Devices (ADI) Wednesday; and Walmart (WMT), Deere (DE) and Ross Stores (ROST) Thursday.

Walmart and Target in particular could provide an important read on consumer spending, pricing pressures and how households are responding to inflation and higher energy costs.

Investors will also continue watching AI/semiconductor momentum, which has remained an important driver of the market rally, while geopolitical developments involving Iran and energy markets remain a potential source of volatility.

On the economic side, the week's centerpiece comes Wednesday at 2:00 PM ET with the July FOMC meeting minutes, which could provide more detail on the debate inside the Fed and the path for rates heading into September.

Housing will also be in focus with NAHB Housing Market Index Monday and Housing Starts/Building Permits Tuesday, while later in the week investors get weekly Jobless Claims, Existing Home Sales and preliminary August PMI data.

With inflation still elevated but recent consumer data showing some softness, markets will be particularly sensitive to anything that changes expectations for the Fed's next move.

One important calendar note: Jackson Hole is not this week—the 2026 symposium is scheduled for August 27—29, making this week's Fed minutes the more immediate monetary-policy catalyst.

Overall, this looks like a retail earnings + Fed expectations + consumer-health week, with oil/geopolitical headlines capable of adding volatility around those scheduled catalysts.