Intuitive Machines keeps $1B revenue goal as Q2 miss shapes outlook

Intuitive Machines, Inc. (NASDAQ: LUNR ) reported second-quarter 2026 results Thursday, posting sharp year-over-year revenue growth but falling short of Wall Street expectations on both the top and bottom lines.

Revenue of $206.17 million more than quadrupled from $50.31 million a year earlier but missed the $220.76 million analyst estimate.

GAAP diluted loss per share was 29 cents, missing the estimated 7-cent loss per share.

Margins and Revenue Mix Gross profit improved to $35.9 million from an $11.8 million loss, with a 17.4% margin.

Operating loss was $47.1 million, while adjusted EBITDA was a $13.8 million loss, including a $14.7 million IM-4 estimate-at-completion adjustment.

Product, service and grant revenue totaled $166.735 million, $36.677 million and $2.756 million, respectively.

Revenue mix was 38% civil, 32% commercial and 30% national security, up from 3% for national security a year earlier.

Contract Wins and Backlog Commercial bookings included a $600 million-plus contract for three GEO satellites, while civil awards included Intuitive Machines’ sixth NASA CLPS mission and two lunar reconnaissance awards.

National security work included SDA Tranche 1 delivery, Tranche 2 production and 18 spacecraft for the AMDT3 Golden Dome program.

Backlog hit a record $1.8 billion after $920 million of Q2 bookings, with another $300 million awarded in Q3 quarter-to-date.

About 25%-30% of the backlog is expected to convert to revenue in 2026, 35%-40% in 2027, and the rest thereafter.

The first lunar communications relay satellite is targeted for launch with IM-3 in the January-March 2027 window, with four more planned for 2028.

The Goonhilly Earth Station and COMSAT acquisition closed in August, expanding the space-to-ground network.

Cash Flow and Capital Investment Operating cash flow was negative $59.8 million and free cash flow was negative $83.9 million.

Cash totaled $367.4 million, while long-term debt, net, was $336.4 million.

Cash use included about $17 million of accelerated inventory and infrastructure investment and $17 million tied to an IM-4 SpaceX launch milestone.

SG&A included $10.5 million of share-based compensation and $7.9 million of acquisition-related costs.

Outlook and Earnings Call Takeaways Intuitive Machines affirmed full-year revenue guidance of $900 million to $1 billion versus the $934.013 million estimate and continues to expect positive adjusted EBITDA.

On the earnings call, management said it has "very strong visibility" to the low end of the revenue range, while movement toward the midpoint or high end depends mainly on contract definitization and procurement timing rather than customer demand.

Management also identified additional CLPS opportunities, including a CLPS 2.0 multi-award IDIQ estimated above $10 billion.

For IM-3, remaining milestones include technical testing and an October flight-readiness review.

Management expects elevated capital spending in the coming quarters but improving free cash flow through the second half.

Intuitive Machines is also expanding satellite production capacity and pursuing a broader role as a prime contractor across national security, lunar infrastructure and data services.

The company cited uncertain global macroeconomic and political conditions and rising inflation among its risk factors.

LUNR Stock Price Activity: Intuitive Machines shares were down 1.95% at $16.62 on Thursday, according to Pro data.

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