CAVA Tops Estimates

CAVA Group, Inc. (NYSE: CAVA ) drew bullish analyst reactions after its second-quarter results topped expectations, with analysts pointing to resilient traffic, strong new-store performance and a faster-than-feared recovery from recent food-safety concerns.

CAVA reported second-quarter revenue of $368.44 million.

CAVA Revenue rose 31.3% year over year to $365.43 million, topping the $360.53 million analyst estimate.

Diluted earnings of 19 cents per share also beat the 18-cent estimate.

Same-restaurant sales increased 9%, including 5.3% traffic growth.

Analysts, however, took different approaches to CAVA’s valuation after the report.

RBC Capital Markets raised its price forecast, while TD Cowen lowered its forecast despite keeping CAVA among its top restaurant picks.

CAVA Business ‘Firing On All Cylinders’, RBC Says RBC Capital Markets analyst Logan Reich reiterated an Outperform rating and raised the price forecast to $95 from $90.

Reich said CAVA’s second-quarter results came in ahead of expectations, while quarter-to-date trends were “better than feared.” Same-store sales improved each week following the initial impact from Cyclospora-related publicity and reached the mid-single digits in the latest week.

The analyst said the food-safety impact appeared less severe than investors feared.

CAVA’s 9% same-store sales growth topped RBC’s expectations and the Street’s 7.4% estimate.

Traffic rose 5.3%, while the salmon launch helped drive customer frequency and attract new customers.

RBC also highlighted new-store productivity.

New restaurants continue to outperform management’s expectations for average unit volumes and margins, while older restaurant vintages are posting strong comparable sales.

The firm said those trends suggest CAVA has enough consumer demand to support both greater density in existing markets and expansion into new ones.

RBC said CAVA’s decision to maintain its full-year outlook despite 9.4% same-store sales growth in the first half appears conservative.

The company maintained its 2026 forecast for 4.5% to 6.5% same-restaurant sales growth and adjusted EBITDA of $181 million to $191 million.

TD Cowen Cuts CAVA Forecast To $85 — But Keeps It A Top Pick TD Cowen took a more cautious view on valuation but remained bullish on CAVA’s underlying business.

The firm maintained its Buy rating but lowered its price forecast to $85 from $100.

TD Cowen called CAVA a top pick and said investor sentiment had become “too negative.” The analyst maintained a 7% same-store sales growth estimate for 2026, above CAVA’s guidance range.

TD Cowen said recent Cyclospora publicity caused only a modest disruption and argued that the pace of the subsequent sales recovery, strong second-quarter performance and additional sales levers could put CAVA back on a positive estimate-revision path.

TD Cowen noted that CAVA’s 9% second-quarter same-store sales growth was the strongest among restaurants reporting during the June-quarter earnings season.

Adjusted EBITDA of $54.7 million also exceeded the firm’s $52.4 million estimate.

The lower price forecast was not driven by a weaker operating outlook.

TD Cowen maintained its 2026 adjusted EBITDA estimate at $192 million, slightly above the top end of management’s guidance.

Instead, the firm cited higher interest rates and lower restaurant-industry valuation multiples.

CAVA entered the quarter with 476 restaurants after opening 17 net new locations.

The company plans to open 75 to 77 restaurants in 2026 as it pushes into new markets, including Las Vegas in the second half of the year and the San Francisco Bay Area in 2027.

CAVA Stock Price Activity: CAVA Group shares were up 10.71% at $67.32 at the time of publication Wednesday, according to Pro data.

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