Nebius Reports Q2 Earnings
Nebius Group NV reports second-quarter earnings before the open Wednesday
Michael Burry is short Nebius Group N.V. (NASDAQ: NBIS ) at $211.77, describing his latest bearish bets as “a bit like shooting fish in a barrel.” The Big Short investor disclosed the trade on his Substack last week alongside a short on Oracle Corp. (NYSE: ORCL ), saying put options on Nebius had become too expensive, so he shorted NBIS shares directly.
The AI cloud company reports second-quarter earnings before the open Wednesday, with the call at 8 a.m.
ET, and traders on Kalshi are betting on which words Arkady Volozh and his team will say.
Analysts expect revenue of roughly $573 million, up more than 400%, with loss estimates ranging from about 52 to 67 cents per share.
The stock has more than doubled this year but trades below Burry’s entry, roughly 36% off its June peak near $300.
What Kalshi Predicts Nebius Will Say “Token” is at 96%.
Nebius’s inference platform is named Token Factory, and the company plans to offer access to Nvidia’s newest Vera Rubin systems through it later this year. “Cash” sits at 94%.
Nebius ended the first quarter with more than $9 billion following a fundraising spree, against 2026 capital spending plans of as much as $25 billion. “Nvidia” trades at 88%.
NVIDIA Corp. (NASDAQ: NVDA ) invested $2 billion in Nebius in March and disclosed a 9.3% stake in July. “Gigawatt” sits at 87%.
Nebius now expects to exceed 4 gigawatts of contracted power by year-end. “Meta” trades at 84%.
Meta Platforms Inc. (NASDAQ: META ) signed a five-year AI infrastructure deal worth up to $27 billion in March, Nebius’s largest announced customer agreement. “Vera Rubin” sits at 75% after Nebius installed its first full rack of Nvidia’s next-generation platform in Finland in July and began testing it. “Pennsylvania,” at 65%, refers to a planned 1.2-gigawatt site in Schuylkill County, Nebius’s second gigawatt-scale U.S. campus. “ClickHouse” trades at 64%.
Nebius holds a significant minority stake in the database firm, whose January fundraise at a $15 billion valuation handed Nebius a $781 million paper gain last quarter.
What Kalshi Predicts Nebius Will Skip “Neocloud” trades at just 39% while “Hyperscaler” sits at 76%.
Executives insist Nebius is an AI-native hyperscaler, not a GPU landlord, and traders bet management sticks to the preferred label. “Convertible” is at 28%.
Nebius has raised roughly $8.5 billion across three convertible note offerings since June 2025, but after July’s $775 million facility, its first senior secured debt, traders lean toward silence on fresh issuance. “Google” trades at 19% after an eight-point jump, as Alphabet’s plans to use more third-party AI capacity have fueled speculation that providers like Nebius could benefit. “Uber” and “Robotic” sit at 15% and 11%.
Avride, Nebius’s autonomous-driving business, operates robotaxis through Uber Technologies Inc. (NYSE: UBER ) in Dallas and was hit with a federal safety probe in May.
Despite the headlines, Avride and edtech arm TripleTen generated only about $9 million of combined first-quarter revenue.
Reading the Board Full-year consensus already sits at the top of Nebius’s $3 billion to $3.4 billion guidance, raising the bar for Wednesday’s outlook.
Goldman Sachs’ Alexander Duval, whose $286 target is the Street’s highest, called the setup strong.
Rival CoreWeave Inc. (NASDAQ: CRWV ) reports after Tuesday’s close and may set the tone before Volozh says a word.
Image: Shutterstock Kalshi and have an existing data collaboration agreement.
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