Europe Faces Dual Diesel And Natural Gas Supply Risks
Europe faces dual diesel and natural gas supply risks ahead of winter
Goldman Sachs global commodities co-head Samantha Dart said Europe faces dual diesel and natural gas supply risks ahead of winter.
Benchmark TTF gas futures fell about 7% this week to roughly €54/MWh; Dart maintains a forecast for TTF to reach €60/MWh for the remainder of Q3.
European gas storage is about 57.87%, roughly 18 percentage points below the 2009—2025 average.
Northwest Europe saw weaker-than-expected LNG inflows in July, leaving end—July inventories near 43% and raising winter refill pressure.
Dart warned that if Middle East energy exports recover slowly, TTF could exceed €100/MWh in December (around 110% above a €50/MWh baseline); if Strait of Hormuz shipping normalises, prices could fall toward €40/MWh (roughly 20% below prior forecasts).