Steve Eisman Pushes Back on Michael Burry's Market Top Call: 'I Think It's Premature'

Two investors who called the 2008 housing collapse agree the artificial intelligence trade has a dangerous weak spot.

They disagree on whether it is time to bet against it.

Michael Burry said Tuesday he is maintaining bearish positions against Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ: NVDA ), Palantir Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ: PLTR ), Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA ), Micron Technology Inc. (NASDAQ: MU ) and other AI-linked names, warning it is “possible we are near a major top, and possible a 1987-type fall.” Burry’s near-term call also rests on market mechanics: he argues that a rising market and falling volatility force volatility-targeting funds to add leverage and draw momentum strategies into the rally.

His longer-term case landed Wednesday, when he acknowledged today’s shortages are real but pegged Nvidia and Palantir as potential “ future ghost towns ” once the boom runs its course.

Steve Eisman is not making the trade. “I think he’s just putting a finger in the air,” the “Big Short” investor said in a Prof G Markets episode released Thursday. “He’s got more guts at this point than me.” Why Eisman Says Burry Is Early Eisman conceded Burry could ultimately be right, but said the break could still be "a year from now." In 2008, monthly securitization data confirmed the mortgage short in real time.

AI has no equivalent, he said. “He doesn’t have a data point that you and I don’t have.” The current data points the other way, Eisman argued, citing benign bank credit, strong employment and Amazon.com Inc.’s (NASDAQ: AMZN ) enormous planned capital spending.

Eisman said the market may have to be "hit over the head by a 2×4" before it reacts to an AI price war, arguing that years of buying every dip have made investors reactive rather than anticipatory.

The Signal That Would Change His Mind Eisman’s trigger is a price war between OpenAI, Anthropic and cheaper Chinese models.

Roughly 70% of AI revenue at Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ: MSFT ) reportedly came from OpenAI alone last year, according to a Bloomberg analysis. “If anything goes wrong for OpenAI and Anthropic, both of whom are losing billions of dollars, then the whole thing unwinds,” Eisman said. “I need a price war in the LLM world.

Until we have that, it keeps going up.” What Prediction Markets Say Polymarket traders lean toward Eisman on timing.

The AI bubble market prices a 15% chance of a bust by Dec.

31, with $2.9 million in total volume.

The bar is high.

Resolution requires at least three qualifying events within 90 days, including Nvidia falling 50% from its all-time high, an OpenAI or Anthropic bankruptcy and H100 rental prices at $1 or lower for five straight days.

In other words, traders are pricing a 15% chance of a contract-defined AI bust this year, not an ordinary pullback.

For now, they are closer to Eisman on timing: no price war, no trade.

Nvidia reports second-quarter results Aug.

26 after guiding for approximately $91 billion in revenue.

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