SpaceX Posts First Results Post-IPO

SpaceX released its first post-IPO results; spending concerns pressured the stock but major brokers stayed generally constructive.

Morgan Stanley — Overweight, PT $300; 2027 revenue forecast $102.0bn and expects annual recurring revenue to top $100bn by end—2026; warns that if compute pricing does not normalize in Q4 2027, AI revenue could add about $42bn versus base forecasts.

Wells Fargo — Overweight, PT cut to $215 from $230; management sees ground compute >8GW by 2027 but Wells models execution delays, forecasting +5GW in 2027 (vs +1.5GW in 2026) and a slowdown to +2.5GW in 2028 (prior 4.1GW).

Deutsche Bank — Buy, PT $235; raises forecasts on stronger near—term AI—driven growth and a faster path to $100bn annual revenue, while noting recent share—price pressure.

Goldman — Buy, PT $220; flags near—term volatility from lockup expiries and says medium—term execution topics (Starship cadence, Starlink broadband/mobile expansion, orbital compute) are unlikely to be resolved in months.

Citigroup — Buy, PT $200; highlights management accelerating a $1tn revenue target to 2030 or possibly 2029, well above street 2029/2030 consensus of roughly $232bn/$372bn.

JP Morgan — Overweight, PT raised to $240 from $225; says SpaceX is leveraging rocket and satellite engineering to scale data—centers faster than peers, cites partnerships with ANTHROPIC, Google and Reflection AI plus a separate six—month cloud contract starting in October; estimates long—run Vera Rubins pricing could reach $30—50/watt versus prior $11—16/watt.

UBS — Buy, PT $210; notes Starship progress, expects a Starlink revenue inflection as ~1,000 V3 satellites deploy, narrowing the gap with Grok, and forecasts 3—7GW added next year implying total compute of 5—10GW+ by end—2027 (vs prior ~4GW).