BP’s Q2 Profit Doubles Amid Middle East Conflict, but It Cuts Production, Capex Outlook

BP p.l.c. (NYSE: BP ) stock is trading lower on Tuesday after the energy major reported second-quarter results that surpassed Street estimates.

Chief Executive Officer Meg O’Neill noted weaker operational performance during the quarter, with upstream plant reliability declining to 92.4% from 95.7% in the first quarter of 2026.

Production and refinery throughput were impacted by planned maintenance and Middle East disruptions, highlighting the need for further improvements in operational consistency.

Read Also: ConocoPhillips Taps Into Billion-Barrel Iraq Asset In Strategic BP Deal BP posted adjusted earnings of $2.22 per American depository share, significantly higher than 90 cents in the year-ago period.

Revenue increased to $69.1 billion from $46.63 billion a year earlier, surpassing analyst estimates of $63.6 billion.

Profit attributable to shareholders climbed to $3.91 billion, compared with $1.63 billion in the prior-year quarter.

Underlying replacement cost (RC) profit rose to $5.7 billion from $2.4 billion in the year-ago quarter.

Underlying replacement cost (RC) profit rose sequentially, led by higher liquids and gas realizations, including the impact of price lags, stronger realized refining margins, and improved customer results.

Operating cash flow totaled $10.9 billion, significantly higher than $6.3 billion a year ago.

Capital expenditures were $3.1 billion, while divestments and other proceeds reached $609 million.

Net debt stood at $22.3 billion at quarter-end.

The company increased its second quarter 2026 dividend by 4% year over year to 8.66 cents per share.

Segment Performance The oil production and operations segment reported RC profit before interest and tax of $3.4 billion.

Underlying profit was $3.6 billion, versus $2.3 billion a year ago.

The gas and low carbon energy segment generated $1.6 billion in RC profit before interest and tax.

Adjusted underlying profit was $2.1 billion compared to $1.5 billion in the year-ago quarter.

The customers and products segment posted RC profit before interest and tax of $5.1 billion.

Underlying profit reached $5.0 billion compared to $1.5 billion in the year-ago quarter.

O’Neill noted that BP continued efforts to strengthen its balance sheet and simplify the business, including the sale of the Gelsenkirchen refinery, an agreement to divest its Austrian retail business, plans to sell its UK North Sea business, and the proposed sale of Archaea, its U.S. biogas business.

Third-Quarter Guidance For the third quarter of 2026, BP expects upstream production of 2.10 million—2.25 million boe/d compared with the second quarter of 2026, 2.201 million boe/d.

It sees refinery throughput of 1.30 million—1.36 million barrels per day, and plans to repay $1 billion of hybrid debt.

The outlook reflects continued disruption in the Middle East, BP’s reduced equity interest in Latin America, and an estimated impact of around 40 mboe/d from potential seasonal weather events in the Gulf of Mexico.

The company also noted that heightened volatility in oil and gas prices could affect PSA contracts.

In the customers business, BP expects results to be significantly lower sequentially, owing to broadly flat volumes, weaker midstream performance, and lower Castrol earnings due to the delayed impact of higher base oil costs.

For the products segment, BP expects refinery throughput of 1,300 to 1,360 mb/d, reflecting the completion of the Gelsenkirchen divestment and reduced planned turnaround activity.

2026 Outlook BP lowered its fiscal 2026 upstream production outlook to 2.18 million—2.27 million boe/d compared with 2025, 2.312 million boe/d.

This includes and expects $13.5 billion—$14.0 billion in capital expenditure, along with $8 billion—$9 billion in divestment proceeds.

The upstream production guidance reflects Middle East disruptions, the Culzean gas field divestment, reduced Latin America equity interest, and seasonal weather impacts in the Gulf of America.

Underlying production is expected to remain broadly flat, with stable oil output offset by lower gas and low carbon energy production.

Fuel margins are expected to remain sensitive to Middle East developments.

Products throughput is expected at 1,360—1,410 mb/d, owing to lower turnaround activity following the Gelsenkirchen divestment.

BP Price Action: BP shares were down 3.90% at $42.53 at the time of publication on Tuesday, according to Pro data.

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