Spotify Earnings Prediction Market Preview: What Will Its New Co-CEOs Say?

Spotify Technology S.A. (NYSE: SPOT ) reports second-quarter earnings before the bell Tuesday, its third report since co-CEOs Alex Norström and Gustav Söderström took over from founder Daniel Ek in January.

Analysts expect earnings of about $3.29 per share on revenue of roughly $5.6 billion.

The stock is down about 16% this year.

Last quarter Spotify beat profit expectations and topped its monthly-user target, yet fell 11% after issuing cautious guidance.

The report lands days after Universal Music Group N.V. (OTC: UMGNF ) shares plunged 25% when subscription-revenue growth slowed to 6.7%, sharpening scrutiny of whether price increases are masking a broader slowdown in paid streaming.

On Kalshi, traders are betting on which words the new bosses will say.

What Kalshi Predicts Spotify Will Say “Retain / Retention” leads the board at 90%, with “Churn” right behind at 89%.

Norström made retention central to his pitch last quarter, arguing that more listening days, devices and content types keep users around longer and increase lifetime value. “Monetization” trades at 87%.

Biddable buying now generates more than a third of Spotify’s ad revenue after the company spent roughly 18 months rebuilding its advertising stack. “Fitness” sits at 63%.

Spotify launched its Fitness hub in April with more than 1,400 Peloton workout classes, making this the first earnings call since the co-CEOs pushed the platform into guided fitness.

The partner supplying those classes is another story.

Peloton Interactive Inc. (NASDAQ: PTON ) trades at just 23%.

Traders expect Spotify to talk up the category while skipping the company behind it.

What Kalshi Predicts Spotify Will Skip “Apple” trades at 37%.

Since a court ruling opened the U.S. iOS app of Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL ) to external payment links, Spotify can show prices and send users directly to web checkout without paying Apple a commission on the purchase. “Claude” trades at 34%.

Spotify plugged into Anthropic’s chatbot in April, letting users build playlists from the chat window, but traders have cooled on a shoutout.

Claude still more than doubles “ChatGPT” at 16%, even though the OpenAI partnership is six months older. “Netflix” sits at 21%, despite 16 Spotify Studios and Ringer video podcasts, including “The Bill Simmons Podcast,” going live on the streamer this year.

Reading The Board Spotify guided to 299 million Premium subscribers, a 33.1% gross margin and €630 million in operating income.

Recent price increases are expected to lift Premium ARPU by 7% to 7.5%, but investors will want evidence they are not also lifting churn.

Advertising is the other pressure point.

Ad-supported revenue fell 5% last quarter on a reported basis, and management has promised an acceleration in the second half.

With Premium subscribers brushing against 300 million, Spotify’s Q3 guidance for subscribers, gross margin and operating income will likely decide whether the stock’s recent recovery survives the week.

Image: Shutterstock Kalshi and have an existing data collaboration agreement.

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