Oil Sinks 6%, Nasdaq 100 Rallies On Iran Talks: Stock Market Today

U.S. equities opened August with a broad-based relief rally Monday as crude oil tumbled and Treasury yields retreated from 18-month highs, after President Donald Trump called off a planned military strike on Iran over the weekend and said negotiations would resume.

West Texas Intermediate crude sank 5.9% to $79.69 a barrel, a three-week low, unwinding a chunk of the geopolitical premium built up over the past month.

Brent slid 4.7% to $83.78.

The pullback in fuel prices rippled straight into rates.

The 10-year Treasury yield fell 5 basis points to 4.69%, retreating from an 18-month high, while the 2-year eased 4 basis points to 4.27% and the 30-year dropped 5 basis points to 5.23%.

With the inflation impulse from energy fading, rate-hike bets cooled.

Futures now imply roughly a 63% probability of a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve hike in September, down from about 80% before last week’s policy meeting, at which three officials dissented and Chair Kevin Warsh offered little forward guidance.

Data offered a second tailwind.

The ISM Manufacturing PMI jumped to 55.6 in July from 53.3, the strongest factory expansion since May 2022 and well above the 54.0 consensus, with the employment index returning to expansion at 52.8.

The S&P 500 rose 1.3% to 7,584, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 520 points, or 1.0%, to 53,005.

The Nasdaq 100 climbed 1.3% to 28,645.

The Russell 2000 outperformed, up 1.5% to 2,976.

Monday’s Performance In Major US Indices Index Last % Change S&P 500 7,584.08 +1.3% Dow Jones 53,005.23 +1.0% Nasdaq 100 28,644.57 +1.3% Russell 2000 2,976.16 +1.5% Updated by 12:15 PM ET According to the Pro platform: The Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (NYSE: VOO ) gained 1.2%.

The SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (NYSE: DIA ) rose 1.0%.

The Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ: QQQ ) climbed 1.4%.

The iShares Russell 2000 ETF (NYSE: IWM ) rallied 1.5%.

Airlines Fly As Cheap Crude Punishes Energy The Communication Services Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE: XLC ) led all 11 S&P 500 sectors with a 3.1% gain, powered by Meta Platforms Inc. (NASDAQ: META ), up 6.5%, and Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOGL ), up 4.1%.

The Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE: XLE ) was the worst performer, down 0.8% as crude tumbled.

Elsewhere, the Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE: XLY ) added 1.8%, while the Industrials Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE: XLI ) and the Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE: XLK ) each rose about 1.1%.

At the industry level, lower jet fuel costs lifted the U.S.

Global Jets ETF (NYSE: JETS ) 3.5%, the best industry move of the session.

The Invesco Solar ETF (NYSE: TAN ) rose 3.4%.

The biggest single-stock story was in pharma.

Bristol-Myers Squibb Co. (NYSE: BMY ) surged nearly 10% on reports it is in merger talks with AstraZeneca.

Leading the Russell 1000 was CoreWeave Inc. (NASDAQ: CRWV ), up 15.4%, tracking a broad risk-on bid for AI cloud infrastructure after a 16% drawdown in July, with Snowflake Inc. (NYSE: SNOW ) up 7.4% and IREN Ltd. (NASDAQ: IREN ) up 6.8%.

First Solar Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR ) jumped 12.9% after Wells Fargo raised its price target to $320 from $255 and reiterated an Overweight rating, citing potential upside from a Section 232 polysilicon tariff decision expected by early August.

Applied Optoelectronics Inc. (NASDAQ: AAOI ) rose 12.6%, as the optics complex bid up alongside Coherent Corp. (NYSE: COHR ), up 9.4%, and Lumentum Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: LITE ), up 6.7%.

Almonty Industries Inc. (NASDAQ: ALM ) gained 10.6% after DA Davidson raised its price target on a stronger tungsten price outlook, with the metal trading at record levels above $3,200 per metric ton unit.

CNH Industrial N.V. (NYSE: CNH ) rounded out the top five with a 10.2% advance after reporting Q2 adjusted EPS of $0.13 versus a 11-cent consensus on revenue of $4.80 billion, and raising full-year adjusted EPS guidance with a midpoint above estimates.

The Worst Performer? GameStop Corp. (NYSE: GME ).

The video game retailer is down 12.8% — its lowest level since August 2024.

GameStop said it would privately exchange about $1.4 billion of convertible senior notes—roughly $400 million of 2030 notes and $1.0 billion of 2032 notes—for Class A common stock, a debt-reduction move investors read as straight dilution.

Marriott International Inc. (NASDAQ: MAR ) slid 7.4% on a mixed print.

Fair Isaac Corporation (NYSE: FICO ) fell 7.2%, extending last week’s roughly 17% post-earnings collapse on reported insider selling.

E-commerce website eBay Inc. (NASDAQ: EBAY ) fell 4.7% after Wells Fargo cut the stock to Underweight from Equal Weight, warning that the Depop acquisition could pressure fiscal 2027 earnings and force heavier marketing spend against resale rival Vinted.

Monday’s Russell 1000 Top Gainers Name % change CoreWeave, Inc. +15.39% First Solar, Inc. +12.91% Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. +12.63% Almonty Industries Inc. +10.59% CNH Industrial N.V. +10.23% Monday’s Russell 1000 Top Losers Name % change GameStop Corp. -12.82% Marriott International, Inc. -7.37% Fair Isaac Corporation -7.21% Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ: MPWR ) -4.99% eBay Inc. -4.69% Image: Shutterstock