Niles Sees Near-Term Bottom

Dan Niles X post Forced liquidations due to excess leverage typically mark near-term historical bottoms. Situational Awareness at ~4x leverage & over $20B in assets at its peak is now wound down. While I heard there were at least 3 other funds in trouble, today's rally may have fixed their issues. I also wanted to put today's rally in context.

1% gain on 4/3/2001 during the dotcom bust. All the other moves in the top 10 occurred during either Covid (3x), the GFC (2x) or the dotcom bust (3x). 9% gain seen on 12/5/00 during the dotcom bust. 5 of the other top 10 gains were seen just since November of 2025 during the recent meteoric rally.

There were 3 more during the dotcom bust. While some give back is certainly likely in the days ahead given the ferocity of this one day move, I believe we have seen the near-term bottom yesterday due to the forced liquidations. I am hopeful the "speedbump" I started expecting back on my June 20th post is now behind us. Getting oil prices back into the $70 range with a decline in bond yields would certainly increase the odds even more.

I believe we are still early in the adoption of Agentic AI and the 10-100x increase in tokens needed since January relative to Chat-based AI.