Niles Sees Near-Term Bottom

Dan Niles X post Forced liquidations due to excess leverage typically mark near-term historical bottoms.

Situational Awareness at ~4x leverage & over $20B in assets at its peak is now wound down.

While I heard there were at least 3 other funds in trouble, today's rally may have fixed their issues.

I also wanted to put today's rally in context.

I gave the stats in my post yesterday about the historic meltdown and why "In summary, my view is that we could have seen at least a short-term bottom today with a strong rally ahead of us in the sectors most caught in the latest speedbump." The 10.7% rally today in the Morgan Stanley Momentum Index beats all but the 11.1% gain on 4/3/2001 during the dotcom bust.

All the other moves in the top 10 occurred during either Covid (3x), the GFC (2x) or the dotcom bust (3x).

For the more concentrated Morgan Stanley TMT (Tech Media & Telecom) Momentum Index today's gain of 19.1% crushes the prior 11.9% gain seen on 12/5/00 during the dotcom bust.

5 of the other top 10 gains were seen just since November of 2025 during the recent meteoric rally.

There were 3 more during the dotcom bust.

While some give back is certainly likely in the days ahead given the ferocity of this one day move, I believe we have seen the near-term bottom yesterday due to the forced liquidations.

I am hopeful the "speedbump" I started expecting back on my June 20th post is now behind us.

Getting oil prices back into the $70 range with a decline in bond yields would certainly increase the odds even more.

I believe we are still early in the adoption of Agentic AI and the 10-100x increase in tokens needed since January relative to Chat-based AI.