BoE MPC: Policy Stance Will Depend On Scale And Shock Of Iran War And How It Spreads Through Economy

Little Sign Of Second-Round Effects So Far But Caution Needed; There Have Been Clear Signs Of Disinflation In Recent Data Risks To Inflation Forecasts Are Tilted To Upside But Scope Remains For Outlook To Change Materially Depending On Iran War Strong Demand For Ai Components And El Nino Pose Upside Risks To Inflation As Well As Iran War Policy Could Need To React Before Inflation Persistence Risks Materialise Conclusively Members Who Backed Hold Decision Believe Tighter Financial Conditions Allow More Time To See Evidence On Inflation Risks Members Who Backed Hold Decision Recognise Need For Higher Rates If Signs Of Material Second-Round Effects Emerge, But Strategy Could Change If Risks Subside Durably Members Who Wanted A Rate Hike Fear Material Second-Round Effects, Risk Management Approach Is Appropriate