Magnificent 7 Payout Ratio Drops to 37%: Fidelity's Jurrien Timmer Asks if it's 'The End of an Era?' as MAGS ETF Falls the Most in 15 Months

The Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF (BATS: MAGS ) plunged 4.63% on Thursday in its worst single-day drop in 15 months, as aggressive capital spending on artificial intelligence severely pressured big tech balance sheets amid a decline in dividends and buybacks.

Big Tech’s AI Capex Squeeze Signals Market Shift Deconstructing this trend, Fidelity’s Director of Global Macro Jurrien Timmer highlighted that massive capital expenditures are heavily crowding out shareholder returns, driving the group’s payout ratio down to 37%.

The payout ratio represents the proportion of a company’s cash flow or earnings distributed to shareholders through dividends and stock buybacks.

Timmer noted that the Mag 7 index has “only drifted sideways since October 2025,” while its relative price against the broader S&P 500 continues to diverge lower.

With cash flows redirected toward AI infrastructure instead of buybacks and dividends, Timmer asked whether the market is witnessing “the end of an era?” for mega-cap dominance.

Check out the Mag 7.

Its payout ratio is down to 37%.

In absolute terms the Mag 7 index has only drifted sideways since October 2025, and its relative price has been diverging lower.

The end of an era? pic.twitter.com/1U1X1vCQjE — Jurrien Timmer (@TimmerFidelity) July 23, 2026 Read Also: Charlie Bilello Says 'Diversification Matters Again' as Magnificent 7 Hit Cheapest Valuation in Over a Decade Record Value Wiped Out as Capex Accelerates The market rout erased roughly $797 billion in combined market capitalization across the Magnificent 7, marking their steepest sell-off since April 2025.

The decline was led by Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA ), which fell over 14% following an earnings miss, and Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG ) (NASDAQ: GOOGL ), which dropped nearly 7% after raising its 2026 capital expenditures forecast to $205 billion.

Alphabet reported negative free cash flow for the first time as a public company due to massive AI infrastructure costs, joined by broader macro headwinds including rising oil prices and Treasury yields.

Analyzing the fallout, Evercore ISI senior managing director Mark Mahaney told Yahoo Finance that during major spending cycles, “people would rather invest in the companies, in the stocks that are receiving the investment dollars, rather than spending the investment dollars.” Concurrently, Brent Schutte of Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management advised investors to pivot toward companies with actual earnings rather than paying for valuations dependent upon outcomes that “may or may not actually happen.” Growing Case for Equal-Weight Strategies As capital expenditures accelerate, investment managers warn that historical leadership from mega-caps is fading.

Astoria Advisors noted that “rich valuations are the case for the Mag 7,” observing that as these firms ramp up spending, returns have been “flat to slightly down.” Stressing that “diversification still matters,” Astoria recommends reallocating capital into equal-weight strategies and financial sectors to manage risk appropriately.

The Mag 7 have led the market but we're looking beyond the biggest names.

As AI investment accelerates and free cash flow is increasingly reinvested, we see compelling opportunities elsewhere.

Diversification still matters.

Check out our insights here: pic.twitter.com/hOslyoKx3C — Astoria (@AstoriaAdvisors) July 23, 2026 How Has MAGS Performed In 2026? MAGS ETF declined by 4.63% year-to-date, up 0.14% over the last month, and higher by 9.74% over the year.

It closed 4.63% lower at $63.23 apiece on Thursday, and it was up 0.94% in premarket trading on Friday. ’s Edge Stock Rankings indicate that MAGS maintains a weak price trend in the long, short, and medium terms, with a moderate momentum score.

Read Also: AMD Stock Could Surge 48% as Daniel Newman Calls It a 'Top Conviction'—Patrick Moorhead Sees $200 Billion Server CPU Market Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published editors.

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