Microsoft Stock Sits 11% Below Its 200-Day Average as Earnings Approach

Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT ) shares are in the spotlight Thursday, with earnings on deck, recent analyst activity, a mixed technical setup and a lingering January death cross all drawing attention.

Microsoft stock is trading at depressed levels.

Where are MSFT shares going? Earnings Preview & History Microsoft is scheduled to report fourth-quarter earnings on July 29.

Analysts estimate EPS of $4.23 along with revenue of $87.61 billion.

For the prior quarter, Microsoft reported EPS of $4.27, beating the consensus estimate of $4.07.

The company also posted revenue of $82.89 billion, exceeding the consensus estimate of $81.42 billion.

Microsoft has beaten EPS estimates in eight consecutive quarters.

Over the last four quarters, the company has averaged an EPS surprise of 0.08% and a revenue surprise of 0.02%.

What to Watch Investors will be watching Azure growth and AI contribution closely, since commentary on AI services mix, easing capacity constraints, or signs of re-acceleration will matter more than the consolidated revenue beat itself.

Capex and forward infrastructure spending, including any signals from long-term purchase commitments, will also be closely tracked, as that’s where the market will handicap future margins.

Finally, Microsoft Cloud segment margins and operating leverage should draw attention, since the bull case hinges on AI revenue scaling faster than compute and data center costs.

Microsoft Trades 11% Below Its 200-Day Average From a trend perspective, Microsoft is sitting about 11.2% below its 200-day SMA ($437.53), which keeps the longer-term bias tilted bearish until the stock can reclaim that area.

It’s also trading 3% below its 50-day SMA ($400.32) and 2.7% below its 100-day SMA ($399.23), so rallies are still running into overhead supply near the $400 zone.

Near-term, the stock is 1% above its 20-day SMA ($384.64), suggesting it has stabilized versus the last few weeks even if the bigger trend remains heavy.

The moving-average structure is still a headwind, with the 20-day SMA below the 50-day SMA (bearish) and the death cross that formed in January (50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA) still in place.

Momentum is best read through RSI, which is at 49.10—basically neutral—implying the stock isn’t stretched enough to scream "capitulation" or "chase." RSI is a quick way to gauge whether recent buying or selling has become overdone, and right now it’s signaling a range-like tug-of-war rather than a clean trend day.

Key levels are tight enough to matter for swing traders watching the next directional break: Key Resistance: $395.50 — a nearby ceiling that lines up with the stock’s struggle to get back above the $400 area and reclaim intermediate moving averages Key Support: $373.50 — a nearby floor that sits in the lower part of the recent range and closer to the stock’s June low zone than the current price Analyst Consensus & Recent Actions The stock carries a Buy rating with an average price forecast of $547.41.

Recent analyst moves include: Bernstein: Outperform (Maintains Target to $646.00) (July 22) Oppenheimer: Outperform (Maintains Target to $515.00) (July 22) Truist Securities: Buy (Maintains Target to $575.00) (July 22) Read Also: Stock Market Today: Dow Jones, S&P 500 Futures Slip As GOOGL, Elon Musk's TSLA Drag After Q2 Earnings—Intel, ServiceNow, Quantumscape in Focus Microsoft Shares Edges Lower MSFT Price Action: At the time of publication, Microsoft shares are trading 0.42% lower at $388.72, according to data Pro.

Image via Shutterstock