Arabica futures near one-week high on Colombian supply signs and Brazil weather concerns
Updated
Summary
Arabica coffee futures traded around $2.92 per pound, near a one-week high, partly supported by signs of tighter supply from Colombia, the world's second-largest arabica producer.
Concerns that El Niño could hurt Brazil's next coffee crop are also supporting prices.
Why it matters
On October 9, Colombia's Coffee Federation reported that production fell 15% year over year to 12.65 million bags and exports fell 12% to 11.78 million bags in the 2025/26 season (October–September).
Coffee trader Commercial said El Niño could delay rainfall in Brazil during September and October, when coffee trees typically flower, potentially threatening the 2026/27 crop.
Despite ample supplies from Brazil's recently harvested 2026 crop and solid export availability, traders are increasingly focused on the next season.
What remains uncertain
Rainfall across key growing regions will be crucial for flowering and fruit set, shaping the 2027 crop's production potential.