Goldman Sachs raises copper price forecasts as projected ex-US deficits widen
Updated
Summary
Goldman Sachs raised its copper price forecasts, citing tighter supply and intensifying US-China competition that deepen the ex-US market deficit.
It raised its projected ex-US copper deficit to 950kt in 2026 and 220kt in 2027, from 640kt and 170kt previously.
Its end-2026 copper forecast rose to $14,700/t from $13,735/t, and its 2027 average forecast to $15,400/t from $13,800/t.
Why it matters
China’s domestic scrap shortage is pushing manufacturers to substitute refined copper for scrap and tightening inventories.
US stockbuilding is diverting copper from other markets ahead of potential tariffs, while mine supply is weaker than expected.
What remains uncertain
Potential US refined copper tariffs remain a risk, particularly after the US midterm elections.