UK July GDP rises 0.1%, above expectations for a slight contraction
Updated
Summary
UK monthly GDP rose 0.1% in July, against expectations for a slight contraction. The Q3 GDP tracking estimate was raised to 0.7% quarter-on-quarter from 0.5%, and the 2026 Q4/Q4 growth forecast was lifted to 2.1% from 1.9%.
Why it matters
Production output rose 0.8% in July, led by manufacturing. Around half of the manufacturing gain came from pharmaceuticals, described as a volatile sector, while transport equipment and other subsectors also contributed.
Services output was flat: gains in wholesale and retail trade and professional services were offset by weaker administrative and support activities. Construction output fell 0.2%, its fourth consecutive monthly decline, driven by reduced private housing work.
What remains uncertain
Some of the pharmaceutical-led manufacturing strength may reverse in the next GDP release. Growth is still expected to moderate in Q4 as consumer spending slows.