FAO October Outlook Forecasts 2026/27 Global Rice Production 2.4% Below Prior Season’s Record
Updated
Summary
The FAO’s October outlook forecasts global rice production at 552.5 million tonnes for the 2026/27 season, down 2.4% from the prior season’s record.
Rice futures are trading near $17 per hundredweight, their highest level since July 2024, amid concerns over tightening supply and rising logistical costs.
Why it matters
Global rice stocks are expected to remain historically high and could cushion supply pressures, even as adverse weather adds production risks in key Asian markets.
In India, output is forecast to fall 6.5% in 2026 to 144 million tonnes, with below-normal monsoon rainfall and reduced summer planting weighing on production. In Thailand, flooding is disrupting river transport and delaying planting for the next crop; the risk of El Niño-related weather disruptions adds uncertainty over yields across Asia.
Higher fuel, freight and insurance costs amid geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are also supporting rice prices, adding a logistical-cost dimension alongside the production risks.