Weekend Brief: US 10-year yield is +0.11%

## Lead Weekend Brief is quiet on the filtered tape; US 10-year yield is +0.11%. ## Session narrative Equity futures are showing a mixed picture this weekend. Nasdaq futures are up 1.17%, leading the gains, while S&P futures are also in positive territory, rising 0.38%. In contrast, Dow futures are slightly down by 0.04%. The US 10-year yield has seen a modest increase of 0.11% to 4.48%. The US Dollar Index is effectively flat. In the commodities complex, precious metals are notably higher, with silver surging 2.87% and gold climbing 1.49%. Copper is also up 0.89%, and WTI crude has gained 0.13%. Natural gas is up 1.53%. Volatility, as measured by the VIX, is down 2.11% to 15.81. Cryptocurrencies are showing minor movements, with Bitcoin down 0.20% and Ethereum down 0.03%. ## Cross-asset check Across asset classes, the equity market, particularly tech-heavy Nasdaq futures, is seeing some upward momentum. The bond market is relatively stable, with the 10-year yield ticking up slightly. The dollar is holding steady. Commodities, especially metals, are performing strongly. This suggests a potential flight to safety or inflation hedging in the precious metals space, while energy commodities are also seeing some buying interest. The VIX's decline indicates a slight easing of market anxiety. ## Themes & continuing stories With a quiet weekend, the focus remains on the broader economic outlook and central bank policy. The upcoming week will bring more data points and central bank speeches that could influence market sentiment. The continued strength in commodities, particularly gold and silver, might signal ongoing concerns about inflation or geopolitical risks, even if not explicitly stated in current news. The mixed performance in equity futures suggests a nuanced view among investors, perhaps balancing growth prospects against potential headwinds. ## What’s ahead Looking into the upcoming week, Monday, July 6th, will be a busy day for economic data and central bank commentary. Key releases include the S&P Global Construction PMI for the Eurozone at 07:30 UTC, followed by the S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI for the UK at 08:30 UTC, which has a forecast of 35.3. The US will see several important data points, including the S&P Global Composite PMI at 13:45 UTC, with a forecast of 53.1, and the S&P Global Services PMI at the same time, forecast at 50.9. Later, at 14:00 UTC, the ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices Paid, Employment, and PMI will be released for the US. Central bank officials are also scheduled to speak, with ECB Executive Board Member Schnabel at 15:00 UTC, Fed Governor Waller at 15:00 UTC, ECB President Lagarde at 16:00 UTC, and BoE MPC Member Mann at 16:45 UTC. These speeches will be closely watched for any shifts in monetary policy outlooks. Additionally, various CFTC Non-Commercial Net Positions will be released at 19:30 UTC, providing insight into speculative positioning in major currencies and commodities.