IEA Says Global Oil Demand to Rebound Next Year After Declining in 2026

The International Energy Agency on Friday said seasonal trends and a rebound in fuel supplies are lifting consumption from May lows, with global oil demand forecast to fall by 1 million barrels a day this year before rising by 2 mmbbl/d in 2027. By October, global oil demand is expected to rise by over 8 mmbbl/d from the May low of 97.9 mmbbl/d, moving above 2025 levels for the first time since February. Higher fuel use during the peak summer travel season will be compound the strength of existing pent-up demand resulting from the months-long closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the IEA said in its monthly oil report for July published Friday. However, projected growth in demand next year, combined with an overall dip in 2026, is expected to result in "a two-year pace of expansion well below historical trends", the agency said. In June, global oil supply staged a sharp recovery, rising by 4.1 mmbbl/d to 98.8 mmbbl/d as a resumption of oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz partly revived production in the Gulf. Global observed oil stockpiles increased by 21 million barrels in June, the first rise in four months, boosted by a sharp rise in oil on water volumes, which more than.