RBC Makes 'Small' Adjustments to Crédit Agricole Forecasts Ahead of Q2 Results

RBC Capital Markets made "small" changes to its earnings forecasts for Crédit Agricole (ACA.PA) amid a model update ahead of the French banking group's second-quarter results set for release July 31. "We lower estimates for mobility services further to incorporate a depressed automobile market (as we did with peers). On the other hand, Corporate and Investment Banking is likely to benefit from supportive markets," analysts said Thursday. "Across the group first time consolidation impacts will impact performance which should reduce visibility on underlying trends. Q2 will see the impact of a number of smaller deals (6-7bp) and an increase in Casa's stake in BPM to 29.3% (from 22.9% at the end of Q1)." As such, the research firm expects Crédit Agricole's common equity Tier 1 ratio to decline to 11.1% from 11.4%, along with a higher cost of risk. The group is also anticipated to announce an interim dividend consistent with its 50% payout ratio for 2026. Looking further ahead, adjusted EPS projections for 2027 to 2028 were nudged higher, while that for 2026 was cut. The stock is rated sector perform, with an unchanged price target of 20 euros.