RBNZ Minutes: Further OCR Increases Likely At Upcoming Meetings, Though Timing Remains Highly Uncertain
Supply Chains Likely To Take Time To Adjust Amid Ongoing Geopolitical Uncertainty Near-Term Inflation Forecast Lower Due To Decline In Oil Futures Prices Since May Statement Future OCR Decisions To Depend On Price-Setting Behaviour And Excess Productive Capacity Financial Conditions Have Eased In Recent Weeks Headline Inflation Expected To Have Peaked At 3.9% In Q2 Before Slowing To 3.3% In Q3 OCR Increase Intended In Part To Prevent An Unwarranted Further Easing In Financial Conditions
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Committee Reached Consensus To Raise OCR By 25bps To 2.50% Current OCR Still Viewed As Accommodative Inflation Expected To Have Peaked At 3.9% In Q2 Inflation Expected To Fall To Around 2% Over The Next 12 Months Inflation Expected To Remain Above Target In Coming Quarters Medium-Term Inflation Outlook Remains Uncertain Medium-Term Inflation Pressures Depend On Cost Pass-Through Lower NZD Could Add To Medium-Term Inflation Pressures Financial Conditions Have Eased In Recent Weeks Economic Growth Expected To Resume In H2 And Strengthen From Q3 Neutral Interest Rate Remains Uncertain Future OCR Decisions To Depend On Inflation, Growth And Pricing Dynamics