US Refiners Poised to Beat Q3 Estimates on Strong Product Margins, TPH Energy Says

TPH Energy Research expects US independent refiners to deliver stronger-than-expected Q3 earnings as gasoline and diesel margins remain robust, it said in a Tuesday note. TPH raised its average Q3 earnings per share estimate for the sector to $5.83 from $4.97, above the consensus forecast of $5.22 per share. TPH still expects earnings to remain below its Q2 estimate of $6.18 and the Street's $5.74. TPH said refining margins have started the third quarter strongly, supported by an unusual seasonal increase in US gasoline margins. TPH said its US gasoline margin indicator increased to $35 per barrel in Q3 from $28 per barrel in Q2, after adjusting for Renewable Volume Obligation costs and measuring against Brent crude. US gasoline inventories have fallen to five-year lows and stand 6% below the five-year average, while gasoline yields have remained about 3 percentage points below normal over the past two weeks as refiners favored diesel production, the brokerage said. Diesel margins also improved, with TPH's US futures indicator increasing to $49/bbl in Q3 from $48/bbl in Q2 despite the US-Iran peace agreement. Low inventories, Russian refinery outages and a steeper global.