June US Median Inflation Expectations Increased for Both Short Term and Medium Term, According to NY Fed Survey

Consumer expectations for one-year US inflation growth increased to a 3.7% gain in June from a 3.5% gain in the previous month, according to a survey released by the New York Federal Reserve Bank on Tuesday. This is the highest level since September 2023. The median inflation expectations increased to a 3.3% gain from a 3.1% gain for the three-year period and remained unchanged at 3.0% gain for five years ahead. The median inflation uncertainty decreased to 2.9% from 3.6% in the one-year horizon and fell to 2.8% from 3.5% for the three-year outlook. Median home price change expectations decreased to 3.2% from 3.5% while home price uncertainty fell to a 3.3% increase from a 3.7% increase in the previous month. The median one-year expectations commodity prices growth rose for medical care and rent and declined for gas, food, college education and gold. Earnings growth expectations increased to 2.8% in June to 2.7% in May while earning growth uncertainty fell. Expectations for losing a job fell while that of finding one rose.