RBC Updates Forecasts for Société Générale Ahead of Q2 Results
RBC Capital Markets revised its earnings estimates for Société Générale (GLE.PA) as part of a model update before the French lender is scheduled to publish its second-quarter earnings on July 30. "SG previously announced (Q4 2025 results) that it would communicate on excess capital management once a year during Q2 results. We expect SG to stick to this plan and not wait for the [capital markets day] for a wider review. We have included a EUR2bn extraordinary share buyback in 2026 to be announced with Q2 results. On this basis, we expect the [Common Equity Tier] 1 ratio to decline to 13.2% (every EUR1bn is [a 25-basis-point] CET 1 impact, 1.6% of the market cap)," according to a Monday note. The research firm expects the bank to announce an ordinary interim dividend alongside its results. After distributing 20% of first-half EPS as an interim dividend in 2025, analysts now model a 25% payout ratio, corresponding to an interim dividend per share estimate of 1 euro. While not yet incorporated in its forecasts, RBC noted a recent Reuters report about the European Central Bank potentially increasing minimum reserves to 2% from 1%, which could create a 100-million-euro headwind.
RBC Capital Markets revised its earnings estimates for Société Générale (GLE.PA) as part of a model update before the French lender is scheduled to publish its second-quarter earnings on July 30. "SG previously announced (Q4 2025 results) that it would communicate on excess capital management once a year during Q2 results.
We expect SG to stick to this plan and not wait for the [capital markets day] for a wider review.
We have included a EUR2bn extraordinary share buyback in 2026 to be announced with Q2 results.
On this basis, we expect the [Common Equity Tier] 1 ratio to decline to 13.2% (every EUR1bn is [a 25-basis-point] CET 1 impact, 1.6% of the market cap)," according to a Monday note.
The research firm expects the bank to announce an ordinary interim dividend alongside its results.
After distributing 20% of first-half EPS as an interim dividend in 2025, analysts now model a 25% payout ratio, corresponding to an interim dividend per share estimate of 1 euro.
While not yet incorporated in its forecasts, RBC noted a recent Reuters report about the European Central Bank potentially increasing minimum reserves to 2% from 1%, which could create a 100-million-euro headwind.