Michael Burry's Bearish Bet On Caterpillar Sparks Debate— Analyst Says the 'Big Short' Investor is Missing the 'Structural Theme'

“Big Short” investor Michael Burry has placed a bearish bet on Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE: CAT ), the heavy-machinery giant, which continues to benefit from the AI infrastructure buildout.

However, some on Wall Street believe the bearish wager is misplaced.

Sergey Glinyanov, a senior analyst at Freedom Broker, told Fortune on Thursday that Caterpillar’s rally reflects a fundamental shift in infrastructure spending rather than AI hype, with growing investment in on-site power systems for AI data centers. "A structural theme is emerging," Glinyanov said.

He added that growing demand for on-site power systems is benefiting Caterpillar as AI data centers seek reliable alternatives to aging electrical grids.

As larger AI campuses increasingly adopt diesel and natural gas generators, Caterpillar is well positioned to capture a greater share of this expanding market.

Glinyanov said the company’s core heavy equipment sales and rental business remains strong, supported by improving dealer inventories and steady demand, while its expanding exposure to AI power infrastructure has helped justify the stock’s premium valuation.

Michael Burry is betting against Caterpillar even as investors have driven the stock up 142% over the past year, anticipating it will be a major AI infrastructure beneficiary.

The rally has also pushed its price-to-sales ratio to a 30-year high, according to the analyst.

Nevertheless, Glinyanov warns that Caterpillar’s valuation ultimately hinges on major AI companies’ continued aggressive spending on new data centers and power infrastructure.

His firm’s price target for Caterpillar is $910, indicating a potential near-term pullback.

Read Also: Nvidia Is Making it Easier for AI Startups to Get Compute Power With a New Cloud and Revenue-Sharing Program Burry’s Caterpillar Short Bet Explained Michael Burry, famed for predicting the 2008 financial crisis, said he believes Caterpillar stock is now overvalued after more than doubling over the past year, adding that despite previously profiting from the stock on the long side, he would now consider shorting it. "Caterpillar jumped out at me," Burry wrote on Substack this week.

His bearish bet on Caterpillar reflects concerns that the stock’s AI-driven rally has outpaced fundamentals.

Although Caterpillar benefits from data center and semiconductor construction demand, it now trades at higher earnings multiples than Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ: NVDA ).

Burry appears to be betting that investors have already priced in too much optimism for AI infrastructure, leaving the stock vulnerable to a pullback.

In June, Burry said the market resembled the final stages of the 1999–2000 dot-com bubble, while renewing bearish bets against Caterpillar, the iShares Semiconductor ETF (NASDAQ: SOXX ), Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA ), and Nvidia.

Edge Rankings place Caterpillar in the 94th percentile for quality and the 8th percentile for value, reflecting its mixed performance. ’s screener allows you to compare CAT’s performance with its peers.

CAT Price Action: On a year-to-date basis, Caterpillar stock surged 61.02%, as per Pro.

On Thursday, the shares closed 2.81% lower at $963.53.

Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published editors.

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