com Weekly Market Update: Q2 closes on constructive note

Equity markets saw 2026’s first half draw to a close on a generally constructive note.

Tech did a good portion of the heavy lifting, unwinding some the mega-cap, AI rotational trades seen in recent sessions.

Nevertheless, volatility lingered in portions of the AI infrastructure stack, particularly for pick-and-shovel sectors like semis and memory.

Oil prices continued to tumble, amid fresh data signaling inflation and inflation expectations have moved in central bankers’ desired direction.

Fed Chairman Warsh even acknowledged as much speaking in Portugal while emphasizing prices are still too high.

Amid repeated kinetic exchanges, the US and Iran seemed grudgingly determined to pursue negotiations around the MOU reached last month.

Hormuz traffic continued to rebound and the case for energy supplies to expand beyond where they stood before the war grew stronger.

Higher OPEC+ quotas, the UAE’s departure from OPEC, Iraq’s threatened exit from the cartel, the full removal of Iranian oil sanctions, and higher production in the US/Venezuela have all factored into keeping a lid on oil prices. - - May JOLTS jobs data jumped up towards 7.6M openings, pushing up Treasury yields initially.

EU CPI readings were broadly cooler than expected, but came alongside generally robust retails sales and consumer data.

June total non-farm payrolls substantially missed estimates with the prior two months jobs growth revised net negative.

The Household Survey was even worse than the Establishment Survey, with a sharp 507K drop in the number of employed people.

The unemployment rate fell to 4.2% but the impetus was a notable drop in labor market supply illustrated by a decline in the participation rate.

Fed fund futures markets pushed back pricing expectations of a Fed rate hike to December from October following the data.

The USD/JPY Yen broke above 162 for the first time in 40 years.

Gold and Bitcoin saw some buying to kick off Q3 after massively underperforming equity markets in Q2.

For the week, the S&P gained 1.8%, the DJIA added 2%, and the Nasdaq rose 2.1%. - - Corporate news featured a smattering of earnings reports, AI sector news, and auto sales figures.

Nike was one of the few marquee names to report this week, touting a big earnings number driven by tariff refunds, but saw the stock dragged down further by continued declines in the key China market.

In the AI realm, a report that Meta is looking to sell its excess computing capacity to external customers contributed to an aggressive drawdown during Wednesday’s session in chip/component stocks.

Q2 auto sales figures showed that the energy shock clearly drove consumers back toward EVs in the last quarter: Tesla easily exceeded delivery expectations for the period, while Toyota’s monthly sales are now consistently over 50% electric.

Ford was a notable laggard amid product overhauls and the wind down of some brands, showing a more than 10% drop in Q2 sales, with its unpopular electric lines suffering a 40% y/y decline. - - - MON 06-29 - (IR) Iran has launched multiple missiles and drones toward Bahrain and Kuwait; Iran says it targeted US military sites in the region in response to recent US strikes - press - (IR) US-Iran said to halt strikes and plan to meet Tuesday in Doha, Qatar - Axios (update) - (IR) Iran Dep Foreign Min Gharibabadi: No technical talks with U.S are planned this week - News Agency Tasnim - (US) US Supreme Court declines to allow Trump to remove Fed Reserve Gov Lisa Cook without due process; Expands the President's ability to fire top govt officials; Backs Trump's firing of Federal Trade Commission members (split decision 5-4) - (US) JUN DALLAS FED MANUFACTURING ACTIVITY: 0.0 V 1.0E - 005930.KR Follow up: Samsung Electronic's Chairman Jay Lee Announces Forward Investment Plans for 2026-2040: Plans Gwangju as chip production base; Current capacity insufficient to meet demand - 'National Report Meeting on Korea’s Great Leap Forward Three Mega-Projects' - CHTR Said to have held executive-level talks about partnering on a consumer mobile phone offering with SpaceX - press (update) - MAERSKB.DK Raises FY26 Underlying EBTIDA $8-10.0B, EBIT $2.0-4.0B, FCF 'at least' -$1.5B (prior: EBITDA $4.5-7.0B, EBIT -$1.5B to +$1.0B, FCF at least -$3.0B, Capex $10-11B); Citing recent sustained increase in spot market rate - MSTR Adopts Digital Credit Capital Framework; Authorizes $1B Digital Credit Securities repurchase and $1B class A common stock repurchase [** Note: The framework quietly changes the bitcoin thesis from pure accumulation to sanctioned monetization: BTC sales can now fund the USD reserve, dividends, interest and buybacks, even though the program is framed as optional] - - TUES 06-30 - (DE) GERMANY JUN NET UNEMPLOYMENT CHANGE: -1.0K V +5.0KE; CLAIMS RATE: 6.3% V 6.3%E - (DE) GERMANY JUN PRELIMINARY CPI M/M: -0.3% V 0.0%E; Y/Y: 2.3% V 2.6%E - (FR) FRANCE JUN PRELIMINARY CPI M/M: -0.2% V 0.0%E; Y/Y: 1.8% V 2.0%E (Annual Headline inflation back at target for the 1st time in 3 months) - (JP) JAPAN Q2 TANKAN LARGE MANUFACTURING INDEX: 22 V 16E; LARGE MANUFACTURING OUTLOOK: 17 V 13E (large manufacturing index improvement for 5 straight quarters, highest level since March, 2018) - (US) Fed's Hammack (voter): Inflation is still too high, Fed may need to consider rate hikes to bring inflation to target; Seeing no tension in the dual mandate right now - CNBC interview - (US) MAY JOLTS JOB OPENINGS: 7.594M V 7.300ME - (US) JUN CHICAGO PURCHASE MANAGERS INDEX (PMI): 56.7 V 55.1E - (US) JUN CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: 91.2 V 94.4E - (US) Supreme Court strikes down political party spending caps in campaign financing victory for Republicans - (US) President Trump to stick with diplomatic talks on Iran for now, told aides that he is 'okay' if talks go past the 18th August deadline - WSJ - GS Oppenheimer Cuts GS to Underperform from Perform - NKE Reports Q4 $0.20* (ex $0.52 tariff refund) v $0.11e, Rev $11.0B v $10.8Be; China Rev -12% y/y - NKE 17:00 ET Q4 earn