Tesla Stock Falls After 'Monster Delivery Number,' Gene Munster Knows The Reasons Why

Tesla Inc (NASDAQ: TSLA ) shares fell Thursday despite topping estimates for second-quarter deliveries, and Deepwater Asset Management’s Gene Munster explained why.

The electric vehicle (EV) maker reported second-quarter deliveries of 480,126 vehicles, up 25% year-over-year and up 34% from the first quarter.

This total came in ahead of a Street estimate of 406,000.

Munster shared on social media Thursday that the sell-off likely happened for three key reasons: buying on the rumor, high gas prices boosting demand, and the end of the Department of Government Efficiency headwind. "The EV winter that started in March of 2024 is ending.

Even backing out those one-time benefits, it still was a monster delivery number," Munster tweeted.

In a blog post, Munster expanded on the three reasons he gave for the share sell-off. "Third-party data that suggested deliveries were up 20%, pushing the stock up 13% over the past five trading days." High gas prices were evident for consumers in the second quarter, with a U.S. average price per gallon of $4.21, up 33% year-over-year.

Munster said that may have pushed consumers to electric vehicles like Tesla.

The investor questions how big of a tailwind this could have been with many seeing higher gas prices as a short-term item.

While Tesla CEO Elon Musk stepped away from his government work on DOGE in May 2025, the official end of the government effort could be a one-time positive catalyst for Tesla.

Munster said the delivery beat shouldn’t be discounted, as the Model S and Model X ended in the quarter.

On a like-for-like basis, the growth rate would have been closer to 27%, the highest quarterly delivery growth rate on a year-over-year basis since September 2023.

Read Also: Tesla Q1: Revenue Miss, EPS Beat, FSD Hits Record, Semi & Cybercab Timelines Softened What’s Next for Tesla The strong quarterly figure is a positive for Tesla, with two favorable quarters in a row.

First-quarter deliveries were up 6% year-over-year, which came after the ending of the federal EV tax credit in September 2025. "Now we have two quarters in a row of favorable delivery data, suggesting, in my book, that the EV winter is ending." Munster highlights a third-quarter delivery estimate from the Street of year-over-year declines of 8%.

The investor said the strong deliveries also come as many investors and analysts are focusing more on items like the Robotaxi and Optimus, which are driving Tesla’s share price higher. "I agree that’s the right focus, but deliveries still matter.

More vehicles on the road mean more data, more FSD usage, more potential FSD customers, more Robotaxi supply, and overall more shots on goal in physical AI." Price Action Tesla stock is down 7.9% to $391.55 on Thursday versus a 52-week trading range of $288.77 to $498.82.

Year-to-date, it’s down 10.7%.

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