General Mills Beats, But 'Less Bad' Outlook Leaves Analyst Unimpressed

General Mills Inc (NYSE: GIS ) beat fourth-quarter earnings estimates and issued in-line fiscal 2027 guidance, but TD Cowen analyst Robert Moskow flagged concerns over the lack of visibility on when organic sales will turn positive.

The General Mills Thesis: Moskow reiterated a Hold rating and raised the price target from $31 to $32.

Management indicated an improvement in sales.

However, they are "hesitant on growth," he said.

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General Mills guided to organic sales growth of -1.5% to +0.5%.

This implies that fiscal 2027 would be "less bad" than the disappointing 2% decline in fiscal 2026, the analyst stated.

Management sounded less confident about the high-end of this guidance range, given the slow start signaled for the first quarter and category growth expected to remain flat.

General Mills Value Vs Volume "The company will now pivot strategically to value growth in FY27 from volume having adjusted price points to improve affordability," Moskow wrote.

While General Mills indicated that volume share remained flat or grew in 65% of their top 10 categories in fiscal 2026, TD Cowen’s tracking data shows that the company lost value share in 70%, he noted.

Management announced total cost savings target of $3 billion between fiscal 2027 and 2030, with $2 billion stemming from productivity and $1 billion from their global transformation, particularly in the supply chain, the analyst said.

General Mills is likely to initiate "significant workforce restructuring and supply chain footprint consolidation" to offset the lower volume, he added. "Unfortunately, we did not hear much on the earnings call to dissuade us from our broader concern that Big Food is in structural decline," Moskow further wrote.

Price Action: GIS shares had declined by 1.51% to $37.20 at the time of publication on Thursday.

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