US Market Close Summary: Central banks affirm 'no forward guidance' message; US-Iran negotiators report little progress
Summary US stocks began the second half in a fairly quiet fashion, yet newsy, trading session. NASDAQ relative weakness continued but volumes dwindled heading towards the July 4th weekend. Meta made a splash following SpaceX into the neocloud space. Shares surged 10% following reports it is building a profitable cloud business to sell excess AI compute, which weighed on names like Coreweave and Nebius. Fed Chairman Warsh reiterated his message from last month’s FOMC meeting, unwilling to add much other than inflation risks and expectations have come down, though prices are still too high. Other global central bank chiefs meeting at Cintra agreed with Warsh's message that forward guidance has little utility right now. June ADP employment came in just shy of 100K jobs, which was below expectations. The long end of the US curve drifted up while short rates held steady. Gold and Bitcoin saw some buying to kick off Q3 after massively underperforming equity markets in Q2. Crude prices continued to track lower following a WSJ report that Trump wants to stick with Iran diplomatic talks despite being continually briefed on other escalatory military options. US - (US) MBA Mortgage.
Summary US stocks began the second half in a fairly quiet fashion, yet newsy, trading session.
NASDAQ relative weakness continued but volumes dwindled heading towards the July 4th weekend.
Meta made a splash following SpaceX into the neocloud space.
Shares surged 10% following reports it is building a profitable cloud business to sell excess AI compute, which weighed on names like Coreweave and Nebius.
Fed Chairman Warsh reiterated his message from last month’s FOMC meeting, unwilling to add much other than inflation risks and expectations have come down, though prices are still too high.
Other global central bank chiefs meeting at Cintra agreed with Warsh's message that forward guidance has little utility right now.
June ADP employment came in just shy of 100K jobs, which was below expectations.
The long end of the US curve drifted up while short rates held steady.
Gold and Bitcoin saw some buying to kick off Q3 after massively underperforming equity markets in Q2.
Crude prices continued to track lower following a WSJ report that Trump wants to stick with Iran diplomatic talks despite being continually briefed on other escalatory military options.
US - (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Jun 26th: 0.0% v 1.0% prior - (US) JUN MONTHLY ADP EMPLOYMENT CHANGE: +98K V +120KE; Notes signs of labor supply constraints in certain industries - (IR) Trump: Everything is going well in Iran talks, had very good meetings; Iran has come a long way - (BR) Brazil Jun Manufacturing PMI: 50.8 v 49.1 prior (moves back into expansion) - (US) Fed Chair Warsh: Not going to give forward guidance; Charting a new course so we can make better decisions; Looked around and see that prices are too high; Inflation risks have come down - (CA) Bank of Canada (BOC) Gov Macklem: We are at the bottom end of neutral range, about the right level to keep inflation contained - (US) JUN ISM MANUFACTURING: 53.3 V 53.9E; New Orders: 56.0 v 57.0e; Prices Paid: 73.0 v 77.5e -Palantir Tech CEO: Enterprises in this country trust and love us and are livid with LLM companies; Why are AI companies charging for tokens if it is so valuable - CNBC - (US) DOE CRUDE: -3.8M V -5.0ME; GASOLINE: -2.3M V -1ME; DISTILLATE: +2.5M V -0.5ME -(US) USTR Greer: USMCA is shifting to rolling talks, no renewal; The key to USMCA talks is fixing up trade deficits -(IR) VP Vance: The US has options if Iran attempts to rebuild its nuclear program; We can't drop bombs for the sake of dropping bombs -(US) Atlanta Fed GDP Now: Cuts Q2 GDP estimate 70.3% from 2.5% to 1.2% -(MX) Mexico Jun IMEF Manufacturing Index: 47.3 v 48.9e -(IR) US Official: US sees 10M barrels via the Strait of Hormuz as diminishing Iran's oil leverage Europe and Asia - (PT) Portugal May Industrial Production M/M: +0.9% v -2.7% prior; Y/Y: -2.3% v 0.0% prior - (DE) German Chancellor Merz: Germany seeking cooperation with US on weapons production; We do not want national unilateral actions within NATO - (IR) Iran Foreign Min Araqchi: Trump committed to keeping Israel at bay; if ignored Iran will school them - (UK) PM Starmer: Defense spending gap of £1B per year is covered by fiscal headroom - OPEC+ said to likely raise Aug oil production quota by 188K bpd at the upcoming meeting - (EU) ECB Chief Lagarde: Reiterates ECB has “given up on forward guidance” calling it her “one regret”; Europe is not in stagflation - (UK) BOE Gov Bailey: Decision not to raise rates was based on softening UK economy; Rate cuts are off the table at the moment -(IR) Reportedly Iran requested in Doha talks the implementation of the MOU in phased timelines; Technical teams in Doha investigated maritime security issues and the nuclear file - Al-Arabiya Corporate Headlines -NKE Q4 $0.20* (ex $0.52 tariff refund) v $0.11e, Rev $11.0B v $10.8Be; China Rev -12% y/y; guides Q1 reported Rev down low- to mid-single digits v -1.9%e; Expects Q2 to decelerate sequentially by “multi-point” headwinds -STZ Q1 $3.43 adj v $3.22e, Rev $2.43B v $2.40Be; Affirms outlook -AA South32 to sell aluminium value chain assets to Alcoa Corporation for an implied enterprise value of up to $5.6B -MSFT announces plans for another round of job cuts, impacting 'thousands of roles', -FDS Q3 $4.53 v $4.44e, Rev $623M v $617Me -GIS Q4 $0.95 v $0.82e, Rev $4.61B v $4.60Be; Expects to generate $3B in cumulative cost savings in the four years through FY30; laser focused on increasing efficiency to help offset elevated inflation -META said to be building cloud business to sell excess AI compute - press -FDX CMA CGM nearing of $1.4B acquisition for Fedex Logistics unit, further strengthening its foothold in the US supply chain - FT After Hours Movers - GBX -2%; earnings deteriorate y/y - STRS -2.5%; announces initial liquidation dividend; to delist - FC -24%; earnings beat but cuts FY guidance