This Analyst Raises Price Target For American Express And This Banking Stock Ahead Of Q2 Earnings

Ahead of the second-quarter earnings season that kicks off in mid-July, BTIG analyst Vincent Caintic revised estimates for American Express Co. (NYSE: AXP ) and Capital One Financial Corp. (NYSE: COF ).

Financial companies are likely to update their guidance to reflect a change in forward expectations, from rate cuts of 75 basis points (bps) to a rate hike of 25 bps, Caintic said in the note.

Lower credit reserve rates could be another headwind to 2026 earnings, he added.

Price Target Changes: Reiterated a Sell rating for American Express, while raising the price target from $285 to $324.

Maintained a Buy rating for Capital One Financial, while lifting the price target from $224 to $259.

Check out other analyst stock ratings.

The American Express Thesis: American Express could report disappointing results, mainly due to Amex’s Commercial product refresh missing expectations, Caintic said.

Fintechs and payments companies have been reporting "very strong growth rates" compared to the Commercial segment’s subdued growth, the analyst stated.

Amex’s planned refresh of its Center expense management solution by mid-2026 have sparked expectations of the Commercial business returning to mid-teens year-on-year lending growth and accelerating fee revenues, Caintic noted.

Bulls expect at least 10% year-on-year revenue growth in 2027, the analyst said.

He added, however, that Amex’s commercial refresh would materialize in more than six months, which is a very long timeline in the competitive fintech sector.

With commercial fintechs growing more than 70% year-on-year and shipping new products every week, "even a month’s delay in announcing a product results in significant share loss for Amex," the analyst further wrote.

While bullish investors expect positive consumer trends to drive an acceleration in Platinum card fees and billed business in the back half of the year, this is currently decelerating, he stated.

The Capital One Financial Thesis: Expenses remain an issue and the company is unlikely to provide clarity during the second-quarter earnings call, Caintic said.

Consensus suggests a sequential decline of 7bps in the credit reserve rate, which could prove "too optimistic," the analyst stated. "By early 2027, the significant synergies from the Discover and Brex acquisitions should finally come into view, which should contribute to a ~50% lift to annual EPS," he further wrote.

AXP, COF Price Action: Shares of American Express had risen by 0.21% to $341.61 at the time of publication on Tuesday, while Capital One Financial’s stock had added 0.06% to reach $202.40.

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